Modeling And Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Wuhan

With the rapid development of China's economy and society,the population of major cities has grown rapidly,and the scale of cities has rapidly expanded.The consequent consumption of resources and environmental pollution are also increasing.The protection of water resources is in short supply,and this will restrict the coordinated development of urban sustainable development,economic society and urban water resources carrying capacity.Therefore,the study of urban water resources carrying capacity has far-reaching practical significance for the current development of the city and the future sustainable development.At present,research results on urban water resources carrying capacity mainly focus on the concept,significance and connotation,as well as the construction of its evaluation index system,and most of the evaluation scales are city and county level administrative regions.This article takes Wuhan City as an example to study how to carry out evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the city as a unit of evaluation on the block,and explores the characteristics and advantages of combining the ideas and methods of mathematical statistics and spatial statistics with the indicator system of water resources carrying capacity.Investigate the current causes of the distribution of water resources carrying capacity in Wuhan.The main research contents of the paper are as follows:(1)Researched the technology monitoring and early-warning technology plan for national resources and environment carrying capacity,and conducted a feasibility analysis of the evaluation plan of Wuhan City as an example.The overall concept of water resources carrying capacity modeling and evaluation was analyzed and introduced in detail.(2)Through the exploration of regional sustainable development theories,combined with the status quo of water resources in Wuhan and the regional characteristics,the indicators that can reflect the water resources carrying status of various streets in Wuhan have been selected,and an indicator system for urban water resources carrying capacity has been constructed..On this basis,the scale push-down method for the indicator data of water resources carrying capacity and the calculation method for water resources carrying pressure were formulated.(3)Research on the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Wuhan City from the aspects of spatial structure and calculation of formation mechanism.The use of spatial autocorrelation tools(the Moran index)to analyze the spatial distribution of water use index data,and use exploratory analysis tools and geographically weighted regression analysis methods to analyze the causes of the carrying capacity of water resources in Wuhan based on population,social,economic,and transportation factors.Quantify the impact of these factors on the water resources carrying pressure in various streets of Wuhan.(4)Push down the street-scale indicator data at the district level,conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis on the water-use indicator data according to the push-down results,and use the thematic maps to make the status of water resources assessment indicators for Wuhan in 2015 and 2016 And analysis of changes;using R software to calculate the distribution of water resources carrying pressure across the city,using exploratory analysis and geographically weighted regression analysis to analyze the current bearing capacity.