Research On Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation And Principal Component Analysis

Under the influence of climate change and human activities,water supply and demand imbalances and water pollution have become increasingly prominent.Water resources issues have become an important factor restricting social and economic development and ecological environment stability.Water resources carrying capacity research to achieve water resources and population Coordinated development of social economy and ecological envir-onment is important.Based on the relevant research r-esults at home and abroad,this paper uses the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and the principal component analysis evaluation model to study the water resources carrying capacity of Long County.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Long County was constructed,including water resources system,social system,economic system and ecological environment system.The water resources system includes factors such as per capita water resources and water resources development and utilization,and the social system includes population.Influencing factors such as density and per capita domestic water consumption,the economic system includes factors such as GDP growth rate and industrial added value of 10,000 yuan.The ecological environment system includes factors such as ecological environment water use rate and forest coverage rate.A total of 20 county scales have been selected.The influence factors of five township scales are used as indicators for evaluating water resources carrying capacity.With reference to relevant domestic standards and existing literature,the grading standard values of each evaluation index were determined based on the actual situation of Long County.(2)The multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and the principal component analysis evaluation model were used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Long County.The results of the two evaluation models show that the water resources carrying capacity of Long County in 2013-2017 is at the middle(Level ?)level,and the change trend of water resources carrying capacity in the past five years has increased first and then decreased and then slowly increased;The water resources carrying capacity of all towns and villages in Long County is at a medium(?level)level,but there are differences within it.Xinjichuan Town,Guguan Town,Caojiawan Town,Tiancheng Town,and Eight The water resources carrying capacity of Badu Town and Guanshan Management Committee is at a medium-high level.The water resources carrying capacity of Southeast Town and Hebei Town is at a medium level,and the water resources carrying capacity of Wenshui Town,Chengguan Town and Dongfeng Town are at a medium-low level.The analysis determines that the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is more suitable for the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in county and township level.(3)According to the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity of Long County,the main influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity in Long County are per capita water resources,water resources per unit area,per capita domestic water consumption,and industrial added value of 10,000 yuan.According to the analysis results of water resources carrying capacity,combined with the problems of water resources development and utilization in Long County,the paper puts forward reasonable measures to improve the water resources carrying capacity of Long County:implementing strict water resources management Institutional and water conservancy project construction measures,improve residents'awareness of water conservation,actively promote water price reform,agricultural water saving irrigation,industrial water saving and reuse,accelerate soil and water conservation construction,and strengthen water ecological environment management.