Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Jinzhou City Based On "Water Resources-Social Economy-Ecology"

Jinzhou is an important industrial city in Liaoning province.Its per capita water resources are about 56%of Liaoning Province and about 19%of the entire country.As the city develops rapidly',the amount of water resources that were originally rare has become more rare,water resources problems have become increasingly serious and water resources have become one of the main factors that restricts urban development and construction.According to the status quo of water resources development and utilization in Jinzhou City,the current situation of water resources carrying capacity of Jinzhou City was evaluated from 2011 to 2017.The water demand forecast and water resources carrying capacity evaluation of Jinzhou City from 2020 to 2025 were carried out,and the optimal allocation plan for water resources was proposed.First,based on the data of precipitation,water resources and water consumption in Jinzhou City,the status quo of water resources development and utilization in Jinzhou City was analyzed.Under the condition of ensuring ecological water demand,based on virtual water and "social-economic-ecological" perspective,the water demand of Jinzhou City from 2011 to 2017 is analyzed.In 2011.2012,2013 and 2016.Jinzhou virtual water deficit is more than zero,water resources social and economic stress index is more than one,and ecological stress index is less than 0.3.indicating that water resources can meet the needs of social and economic development,and social and economic development does not give ecological environment.Corruption,ecological environment water supply pressure on yvFater resources is small.In 2014,2015 and 2017.Jinzhou virtual water deficit is less than zero.social and economic index is less than one.ecological stress index is less than 0.3.although ecological environment water Supply pressure on water resources is small.water resources cannot satisfy social and economic development demand and it may result in the development and utilization of non-renewable water resources,causing ecological damage.Second.according to the screening criteria of evaluation indicators.combined with expert opinions,nine key factors were selected from the aspects of water resources,social economy and ecology,and an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity was established.The water resources carrying capacity status is subdivided into five grades,and the five-level grading standard values of nine individual indicators are designed and formulated,which provides a standard for the evaluation model to quantitatively evaluate the state of water resources carrying capacity.According to the screening principle of water resources carrying capacity evaluation method,It selects the analytic hierarchy process,principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as the evaluation methods of water resources carrying capacity in Jinzhou through comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages and applicability of various evaluation methods.Third,it applies YAAHP software to empower evaluation indicators,and establish an evaluation model of AHP.principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.on the basis of the evaluation indicators and the grading standards for water resources carrying capacity,the evaluation and comprehensive analysis of water resources carrying capacity of Jinzhou from 2011 to 2017 were conducted.In 2012,the water resources carrying capacity was strong and the evaluation result was Grade IV;In 2011,2013,2016 and 2017,the water resources carrying capacity was general and the evaluation result was Grade ?;the water resources carrying capacity in 2014,and 2015 was weak and the evaluation result was Grade II.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results are more different from the comprehensive analysis results.The analytic hierarchy process is more subjective,but the evaluation results are consistent with the comprehensive analysis results.It can be used as a reference.The principal component analysis method is slightly lower than the comprehensive analysis results,but can Greatly reduce the error caused by subjective empowerment.Therefore,the principal component analysis method is more suitable for the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Jinzhou City.At last,the gray forecasting model is used to predict the water demand and water resources in different hydrological years from 2020 to 2025 in Jinzhou City.In the year of the Year of Peace and Water,the water resources can meet the water demand for social and economic development:in the dry year,the amount of water resources is insufficient to meet the water demand for production,living,consumption and economic development of the city,and the pressure on water supply is relatively high.According to the Jinzhou Development Plan,the water demand in 2020 and 2025 is predicted,and the results of the two water demand predictions are compared and analyzed,and the results are small.The principal component analysis method was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jinzhou City in 2020 and 2025.The evaluation results showed that the water resources carrying capacity was weak.According to the evaluation results,the water resources optimization allocation suggestions are given,the water resources carrying capacity is improved,the ecological environment water is guaranteed,and the ecological environment construction is improved.