Study On Prediction Of Carrying Capacity Of Water Resources And Environment

Water is the source of life of a city and the "flowing blood" of its operation and development.With the rapid development of economy and society,the demand for water has increased,and the contradiction between water supply and demand has become increasingly prominent,which has seriously restricted the development of urban economy.Effectively solving the current water environment pollution problem,improving the utilization efficiency of water resources and the ability to absorb pollution,and realizing the sustainable development of water resources and environment are the focus of attention in the current urban development strategy.In the future,cities must ensure that sustainable development is built within the sustainable limits of the carrying capacity of water resources and environment.Therefore,clarifying the evolution process of water resources environmental system,understanding its carrying capacity,and realizing the prediction of the carrying capacity of water resources and environment are important issues that need to be solved urgently in the study of carrying capacity of water resources and environment.In view of this,this paper combines the theory of sustainable development and economic system theory to expand the connotation of carrying capacity of water resources and environment,expand the concept of single water resources and carrying capacity of water resources and environment to generalized water resources,and study the prediction of carrying capacity of water resources and environment,consider the comprehensive effects of water resources-water environment-society-economy.First,measure the carrying capacity of water resources and environment.The water resources environmental carrying capacity measurement index system is constructed,the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight,and the TOPSIS-FCE comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value of the water resources environmental carrying capacity.Secondly,a system dynamics prediction model of the carrying capacity of water resources and environment is constructed,which expands the evolution of the carrying capacity of water resources and environment from instantaneous evaluation to dynamic prediction analysis.Finally,use Vensim PLE software for simulation prediction,and take Xi’an as an example for empirical analysis.According to the results of empirical analysis:(1)From 2006 to 2020,the comprehensive evaluation value of Xi’an’s carrying capacity of water resources and environment showed a fluctuating upward trend,with obvious time nodes;the comprehensive evaluation values of each subsystem have increased,and the development trend is towards good.(2)Under the current situation,the factors restricting the carrying capacity of water resources and environment in Xi’an mainly come from water resources and water environment subsystems.Therefore,promoting water diversion projects,intensifying pollution prevention and control efforts,and maintaining the achievements of water environment civilization in the future will be the focus of Xi’an’s economic development.(3)The prediction results of the development status of different models from 2021 to 2025 show that the comprehensive and coordinated development model is most suitable for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources and the sustainable economic and social development of Xi’an.The research in this paper not only makes a useful supplement to the theory of carrying capacity,but also provides a certain decision-making reference for relevant departments in the policy formulation of water resource safety management and water environment protection.