Dynamic Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Rational Allocation

Water is the source of life,and it is a supporting resource to maintain the normal operation of the ecosystem and the social system.As an important material resource,water resources are related to all aspects of human society,economy,life and so on.Because of the particularity of water resources,and affected by the unreasonable development and utilization,ecological environment and economic development to show the slow development of the trend of the world's population,society,economy,environment and resources has gradually shown,a serious threat to the sustainable development,the sustainable utilization of water resources has gradually become the subject of attention most scholars all over the world.Therefore,to ensure the sustainable utilization of water resources has the ability,strengthen the development and management of water resources,the limited water resources rational allocation,to alleviate the crisis of water resources,protection of human society and economy,the industrial and agricultural production and people living and sustainable development are of great significance.Taking Heilongjiang Province as the research object and guided by sustainable utilization,aiming at the current situation of water resources in Heilongjiang province and the problems existing in the development and utilization of water resources,the research on water resources allocation and carrying capacity in Heilongjiang province is carried out.This article is divided into the following aspects:(1)According to the economic and social development plan of Heilongjiang Province,the needs of ecological civilization construction and the layout of water conservancy projects,we will carry out the research of water volume prediction and water demand prediction in the whole province.Through the forecast of social and economic development index,each water user's quota is predicted,and the comprehensive forecast of water demand is carried out.The forecast of the water supply in the province is carried out through the prediction of the water supply in the key watershed.On this basis,the water supply and demand balance of Heilongjiang Province in 2015 and 2020 planning years and 2030 planning years are analyzed.(2)According to the water resources in the study area,based on water cycle,combined with the analysis of the existing water conservancy and runoff characteristics,the administrative unit division,basic research in the theory and method of water resources allocation,in order to ensure the sustainable development of economic society and ecological environment security goals of configuration of water resources in Heilongjiang province model.Based on the establishment of the rational allocation model of water resources in Heilongjiang Province,the reasonable allocation of water resources in Heilongjiang province is studied based on the current year and the annual plan of allocation.(3)Based on the analysis of the carrying capacity of water resources and the actual development of Heilongjiang Province,the impact of grain consumption on the carrying capacity of water resources is highlighted,and a quantitative calculation model of water resources carrying capacity based on food security is constructed.Based on the results of optimal allocation of water resources,the quantitative evaluation of water resources carrying capacity was carried out from two angles.