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Application Of Improved Entropy Weight Method In Comprehensive Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Hefei

Posted on:2021-01-13Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2370330611952470Subject:Municipal engineering
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Since the application of reform and opening-up policy in 1978,with the rapid economic and social development,China's water resources have faced severe challenges.The importance of water resources has made more and more scholars at home and abroad realize the necessity of evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources.Due to the large population and shortage of water resources,China's water resources problems are more severe,so it is more urgent to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity.Although the results of current water resources carrying capacity evaluation research are numerous and is with rich theoretical connotation,there is no recognized best method.The evaluation process either presents strong subjectivity and randomness,or the researchers rely too much on the inherent information of the sample resulting in ignoring the subjective initiative.Neither of the evaluation results are objective and fair enough.In response to the above situation,based on the existing research results at home and abroad,combined with Hefei's water resources,economic and social development and ecological environment protection,a water resources-society-economy-ecology evaluation system has been established.Selected 14 representative evaluation indicators,used the entropy weight method to construct the judgment matrix of each indicator in each year from 2008 to 2018,made combination weight calculation of the obtained index weights and the index weights scored by experts according to the principle of minimum relative entropy,and then comprehensive evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Hefei was conducted.In addition,in-depth researches have also been conducted on the influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources and their changing trends in Hefei,and the research results can provide references for decision-making agencies such as water resources development,utilization and protection in Hefei.The main research results are as follows:(1)The entropy weight method can objectively reflect the index data,and it is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index,which better avoids the influence of human subjective factors and is more authentic.The Philo Model is often used in the quantitative evaluation of the development value of tourism resources,that is to convert the subjective judgment of each element's influence factor into scientific mathematical processing and expression,and combine the weights of each index obtained by the entropy weight method and the index weights obtained by the experts in the Philo Model tocalculate the combined weights according to the principle of minimum relative entropy,whose process is more comprehensive and objective and the results are more scientific and reasonable.It is more in line with the actual development of Hefei and also provides a new reference method for water resources evaluation in other cities.(2)The water resources carrying capacity of Hefei increased from 0.078 in 2008 to0.098 in 2018,showing a steady upward trend overall.The year 2016(0.113)with the highest water resources carrying capacity was 1.45 times the lowest in 2008(0.078).The economic subsystem and the ecological subsystem have made greater contributions.The social subsystem is generally stable,and the water resources subsystem is affected by the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources in Hefei and shows a fluctuating trend.In the economic subsystem,the water resources carrying capacity is significantly affected by the total economic value of Hefei and the water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP,while in the social subsystem,the natural population growth rate and population density have a greater impact on the contribution of the water resources carrying capacity.(3)From 2008 to 2018,the water resources carrying capacity of Hefei showed a steady upward trend.The highest level of water resources carrying capacity of 2018(0.7269)was 2.4 times the lowest(0.3030)in 2008.Although the changes are significant,there is still a big gap from the ideal level,and the sustainability of water resources is still under great pressure.With the further acceleration of industrialization,urbanization,and agricultural modernization,and with the rapid economic development,we must also pay attention to increasing the implementation of water ecological protection and treatment measures,reducing irrigation water and industrial water consumption,increasing sewage treatment rate and water quality compliance rate to ensure the steady improvement of the quality of the ecological environment,further improve the carrying capacity of water resources,and promote socioeconomic sustainable development and sustainable use of water resources.
Keywords/Search Tags:water resources carrying capacity, entropy weight method, Philo model, index weigh
PDF Full Text Request
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