| Water is the source of life,the essence of production and ecology.In line with the needs of economic and social development in southern Guizhou,it provides certain reference and suggestions for solving the construction of ecological civilization,top-level design and development and utilization of water resources.In this paper,the carrying capacity of water resources in Qiannan Prefecture is mainly analyzed and studied.Combined with the facts of Qiannan,three methods of water resources supply and demand balance analysis,water resources load index method and principal component analysis method are used to comprehensively predict and evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Qiannan Prefecture by combining quantitative and qualitative methods.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Through the analysis of the balance between supply and demand of water resources,the difference between water demand and water supply quantity reflects the supply and demand balance state of Qiannan Prefecture in 2025 and2030.In 2025,the total water supply was about 1.292 billion m~3,the total water demand was about 1.274 billion m~3,and a water gap of 0.25 billion m~3.In 2030,the total water supply was about 1.317 billion m~3,the total water demand was about 1.323 billion m~3,and a water gap of 0.16 billion m~3.(2)Through the water resources load index method,the situation of water resources development and utilization in Qiannan prefecture in the whole province and the development and utilization of water resources in 12 counties and cities in the whole state are analyzed and studied.Taking the level year of2018 as an example,the water resources load index of Qiannan Prefecture is2.001,which is the minimum value of the province,and its water resources utilization and development degree is close to the level of grade IV.The water resources load index of all counties and cities in the whole state is from small to large:Libo County,Pingtang County,Sandu County,Luodian County,Dushan County,Changshun County,Huishui County,Longli County,Guiding County,Duyun City,Weng'an County,Fuquan City,in which Libo County Water Resources load Index 0.711 is the minimum value of the whole state,while the whole state The maximum value is the load index of Fuquan City 4.441.The comprehensive results show that the overall development conditions of water resources in Qiannan Prefecture are relatively easy and moderate,and the potential of development is very great.In the future,the water resources economy of Qiannan Prefecture has enough development space and prospect.(3)The carrying capacity of water resources in Qiannan Prefecture in2018 was analyzed by principal component analysis.The first,second and third principal components accounted for 49.234%,21.552%and 12.259%respectively.Among them,GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents,fixed asset investment,ecological and environmental water consumption and domestic water consumption are the main factors of the primary main component,and the annual average precipitation in the third principal component was the key factor.According to the analysis results of the cities and states of the province,the first,second and third principal components account for 47.867%,29.553%and 13.837%respectively,among which the driving factors that make up the first principal component load are regional GDP,ecological environment water consumption,resident water consumption and per capita disposable income of urban residents,among which forest,animal husbandry,total water resources and irrigation water consumption are the main factors that make up the second principal component,and the per capita water consumption plays a leading role in the third principal component.It is concluded that the main influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity in Qiannan Prefecture can be summarized as five aspects:social and economic development,water resources environment,population,water resources utilization efficiency and water resources source. |
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