| Water is an important resource related to national economy,people's livelihood and ecological balance.With the rapid development of social economy and the continuous increase of water consumption,water shortage has become a common problem in human society.For a long time,the shortage of water resources has been a problem facing the Yellow River Basin.In addition,the rapid growth of population and the unreasonable industrial structure have led to fierce competition for water in various industries,and the relationship between regional ecology and economic development is difficult to coordinate,which has seriously hindered the sustainable development of the economy and society in the Yellow River Basin.To solve the problem of"water"is the key to realize the high quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the panel data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2004 to 2018,this paper first makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the water use and economic development of the Yellow River Basin.Secondly,it constructs the Gini coefficient,decoupling index and index decomposition model,from the overall and provincial levels to analysis the spatial matching of water resources,decoupling relationship between economic growth and water resources utilization and the driving factors affecting water resources utilization in the Yellow River Basin.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)based on the analysis of the Nikki coefficient of water resources,the spatial distribution of water resources and GDP,agriculture,Industry and Service in the Yellow River Basin is unbalanced;the spatial matching equilibrium of water resources and agriculture is higher than that of GDP,Industry and service;the Gini coefficient of water resources shows a fluctuating trend from 2004 to 2018,generally moving towards the downward trend.(2)From 2004 to 2018,the decoupling relationship between total water use and GDP,industrial water use and industrial output value,and service water use and service output value in the Yellow River Basin is mostly shows weak decoupling,with water consumption growing along with the economy,but the growth rate of water resources is slower than that of economic growth;the decoupling relationship betweenagricultural water use and agricultural output value is mostly shows strong decoupling,that is,economic growth The long-term water consumption will not change or decrease.From 2017to 2018,the decoupling relationship between the nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin is basically consistent with the overall decoupling relationship.(3)In this paper,the driving factors affecting water consumption are divided into water intensity,industrial structure,economic level and population scale.From 2004 to 2018,the contribution value of water intensity to total water consumption is-95.804 billion m~3,the contribution value of industrial structure is-45.663 billion m~3,the contribution value of economic level is 140.165billion m~3,and the contribution value of population scale is 5.753 billion m~3.The improvement of economic level is the leading factor for the improvement of water consumption,while the improvement of technical level and industrial structure greatly offset the promotion effect of economic growth on water consumption;once again,the driving factors are divided according to the level of agriculture,industry and service industry,and the contribution rate of agriculture is the largest among the driving factors.From 2017 to 2018,the performance of water driving factors in all provinces and regions is basically consistent with that of the basin as a whole.The high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin needs to achieve the rational allocation and effective utilization of water resources.Through the above analysis results,the corresponding policy recommendations are formulated to promote the process of high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. |
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