| In recent 10 years,urban population increases sharply in the Huaihe River basin.Urbanization and industrialization also develop rapidly;chemical fertilizers and pesticides input in agriculture are continuing increase.As a result,the water resource demand in the basin increases and the pressure of water environment pollution is unprecedented.At the same time,because of the long-term accumulation of pollution,extensive growth mode,"GDP" conducted performance evaluation,growing numbers of cancer villages,residents living environment deterioration,environmental and health costs are soaring,conflicts between water and human are more serious Facing this dilemma,in 2012 The State Council's Opinions on the Strictest Water Resources Management System clearly states that China will create the most strict water resources management system.Then the water pollution problem has redraw attentions.However,under the strategy of Eastern open and Western Development,the basin needs to take on the new capacity of more than 7.5 billion tons food,to undertake a large number of high-pollution industries from Yangtze River Delta region in the next 10 years.There is no doubt that the difficulty of water pollution prevention and control increase.As a consequence,when the most strict water resources management system meets the development of the "predatory" reality,it is very important to ensure economic growth and implement the strict management system of water resources protection.It is the key to the river basin sustainable development.In view of above,this paper takes the large-scale basin as the research unit,regards the harmonious development relationship between human and water as the goal,and gives full consideration to the space-time characteristics of water resource and the inherent law of economic growth.Then it uses the complex theory and the theory of limit to growth,focuses on the water environment support under the economic growth of the basin.Taking the "3S" geographical spatial analysis as the main means,building the coupling coordination model and "3D"(three-dimensional)water resources supporting capacity of water environment evaluation model.Finally evaluating the water environment capacity,the water environment pressure caused by urbanization,industrialization and agricultural,and the warning capability to the early basin pollution.Such evaluations are all on the river basin scale.After that,it makes a comprehensive evaluation and distinguishes the characteristics of economic growth supportability.We expect to provide quantitative and scientific decision basis in building large-scale basin economic development pattern and pollution control long-term mechanism.In view of this,based on the summary of relevant research literature home and abroad.First of all,using factor overlay method,exploratory spatial analysis model and gravity model.We analyze and identify characteristics of temporal and spatial pattern evolution of the urbanization,industrialization and agricultural development in the basin,and also analyze the spatial characteristics and rules of water resources.Then by using the coupling coordination analysis,we reveal the internal relationship between economic development and water pollution.We find that from the year 2000 to the year 2012 with the rapid development of urbanization,industrialization and agricultural,the water stress caused by urbanization and agricultural is clearly on the rise,the water stress caused by urbanization is on a slight decline.From the year 2000 to the year 2012,in the basin the population urbanization has increased by 1.34%per year,land urbanization rate has increased by 1.51%,more than 22 million rural population has moved to the city,more than 4498.45km2 land has been converted to urban land.In the basin,polluting industries agglomeration trend is obvious.Industrial output accounted for more than 50.93%of GDP,with an average annual growth of nearly 1%.Grain and livestock production increase significantly,chemical fertilizer input increase with an average annual rate of 14.6%.From the year 2000 to the year 2012,water consumption and water use efficiency rise significantly,the water quality in the river is getting better overall,but the V class above water proportion is still larger.There is a clear reduce tendency of heavy pollution area,the spatial pattern evolved from concentrated distribution to banded distribution.The coupling coordination between economy development in the basin and water resources environment level is low.The average value of coupling degree among the 35 cities is only 0.292,the average value of coordination degree is 0.14.Therefore,the coupling coordination level is very different among areas,and the overall trend reveals that the level in the east is higher than the west.Secondly,on the basis of the analysis on economic development and water resources environment,by constructing "3D" model of water resources environment supporting force based on capacity,pressure and control capability,the carrying capacity of basin water resources environment are evaluated from the natural environment watershed,environmental capacity,the characteristics of water quality and water volume;the coercive pressure on water resources environment are evaluated in partition from the aspects of watershed urbanization,industrialization and agricultural modernization;the watershed pollution prevention and control capabilities are evaluated from three aspects of prevention and early-warning management,which include water pollution management,monitoring and early warning;ultimately,a comprehensive evaluation of water resources environment supporting capacity of the basin which covers 173 counties.The results show that overall level of watershed supporting force is low,the supporting force of 87 counties of watershed is low,which accounting for 57.12%of the watershed area Overall support force presents characteristics with the south region of Huaihe River Valley higher than north region,the downstream>Upstream>Yishusi River?midstream.Meanwhile,the watershed supporting force value distributes from low to high with a gradient diffusion of spheres,which making Zhengzhou-Kaifeng as the center of low-value of support force.Namely,making Zhengzhou-Kaifeng Economic Zone as the core of the region with the minimum support capabilities,the neighborhood areas are higher,the further,the distance from the center is,the higher,the support capacity is.Overall carrying capacity of basin water environment is low,the carrying capacity of 104 counties is medium-low,accounting for 52.44%of the watershed area The areas with high carrying capacity are mainly distributed in the east areas of the North Water Transfer Project,south of the Huaihe River,the overall level of carrying capacity in most parts of the midstream areas is low.Overall watershed pollution pressure of 173 counties is high,which the highest pressure comes from agricultural non-point source pollution and urban sewage,the pollution pressure of 89 counties of watershed(?0.20),accounting for 55.75%of the watershed area.The watershed pollution pressure presents characteristics with the east of watershed higher than west,municipal districts higher than general counties.Watershed pollution prevention and control ability is generally low,the value of 88 counties(urban)is medium-low(?0.4).The High-value areas are located in downstream areas and the east areas of the North Water Transfer Project.At last,based on the evaluation results of bearing capacity,pressure and preservation ability of river basin in "3D" support model,we make a partition of water resources and environment in the river basin.And we scientifically conduct industrial layout and environmental protection based on that partition.The partition shows that among the eight types of partition in basin area,low bearing capacity-low pressure-low prevention ability(L-L-L)is the most widely distributed type in the basin,making up about a quarter of the basin area.The following are low bearing capacity-high pressure-high preservation ability(L-H-H),high bearing capacity-high pressure-high preservation ability(H-H-H)and(H-L-L)types,these four types account for 73.67%of the basin area and are the main types of supporting capacity of the basin.According to different partition types,we come up with strategies like optimized urban-rural space layout in basin area,so as to speed up the combined development of urban and rural areas,and adjust the industrial and agricultural structure in river basin,moderately handling the transformation of industries.To be specific,the pressure from the water environment is small in the downstream and the southern area of the mainstream in Huaihe River Basin,and the supporting capacity and pollution prevention ability are high,under strict environmental access and emission standards,that area is suitable for arranging traditional and basic industries;the water environment of midstream and YiShuSi River Basin area shows high pressure,and is in urgent need of industrial structure adjustment and transformation;the upstream,major sources of drinking water,areas along the east line of south-to-north water diversion project,as well as some extremely fragile areas should be limitedly or protectively exploited,ensuring the ecology and environment functions well and having clean water supply. |
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