Analysis Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Suibin County Based On System Dynamic

Water is an important part of the natural environment and the material basis for the survival of living organisms.The development and utilization of water resources is becoming more and more intense,which is easy to trigger a series of negative impacts on the environment.Therefore,the carrying capacity of water resources in Suibin County is analyzed,and the entropy weight TOPSIS is used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources,and the method constructs the water resources evaluation system of Suibin County based on some indicators related to water resources,society and economy from 2014 to 2020,and evaluates the historical carrying capacity of Suibin County.Then,based on the system dynamics methodology,Vensim PLE software is used to simulate and predict the future of Suibin County,and then analyze the prediction results.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)The carrying capacity of water resources in Suibin County was between 2014 and 2020,and 2019 and 2020 were the best years in several years,and its water resource carrying capacity level was not stable and was in a state of fluctuation and rise.But the carrying capacity of water in the remaining years is not good.In contrast,the water resources system layer and the social system layer have a greater impact on the carrying capacity of water resources in Suibin County.(2)There are four development scenarios in the system dynamics model of Suibin County,including the status quo continuation scenario,the economic development scenario,the water-saving utilization scenario,and the sustainable development scenario.The results show that the available water supply in the four scenarios in 2035 is less than the water consumption in the study area,and the ratio of water supply to demand is less than 1.Under the status quo continuation scenario,the total amount of water use has steadily increased and the total population has steadily declined.Under the economic development scenario,water consumption is the largest,and the development of GDP is also the most rapid.The total water consumption under the water-saving utilization scenario is the least,its economic development ranks fourth,and the population is declining year by year.and under the sustainable development model,total water consumption ranks third under four scenarios,and its economic development is second.In summary,it can be seen that to improve the efficiency of water use,because the total agricultural water use in Suibin County accounts for a relatively large proportion,it is better to improve the efficiency of agricultural water use and save water.