Study On The Carrying Capacity And Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Luochuan County

As one of the first demonstration counties in China to implement the integration of urban and rural water supply construction,Luochuan County,with the rapid development of economy and society,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become prominent,which has seriously restricted the sustainable development of the region.The carrying capacity of water resources is an important indicator of the level of sustainable development of the region,and the optimal allocation of water resources is an important means to resolve the contradiction between water supply and demand.Based on this,this paper carries out a study on the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and optimal allocation of water resources in Luochuan County in conjunction with the project of Yan’an Municipal Water Resources Bureau.The main research results are as follows:1、Analysis of water resources conditions and development and utilisation in Luochuan CountyA systematic analysis was conducted on the natural geography,water resources,water environment,and socio-economic characteristics of Luochuan County,with a focus on analyzing the surface water resources,groundwater resources,and the degree of development and utilization of water resources in Luochuan County.The study also investigated the trends in the supply and use of water in Luochuan County over the years.2、Constructed the water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system of Luochuan CountyBased on the investigation and analysis of the background of water resources,the status of development and utilization,and the level of economic and social development in Luochuan County,a comprehensive evaluation index system for water resource carrying capacity was established,taking into account the overall benefits of water resources,economy,society,and water environment in the county.Nineteen evaluation indicators covering water resources system,economic system,social system,and water environment system were selected,which reflect the water resource carrying capacity of Luochuan County comprehensively.3、Comprehensive evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources in Luochuan CountyBased on the established evaluation index system and evaluation grade criteria,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Luochuan County and determine the water resources carrying capacity grade of Luochuan County from 2010 to 2019.The research results show that: the water resources carrying capacity of Luochuan County in 2019 is at level III,the water resources carrying capacity is average,and the water resources in the region can only meet the current scale of socio-economic development.The overall water resources carrying capacity of Luochuan County from 2010 to2019 showed a small fluctuating upward trend,and the water resources carrying capacity was all at level III,indicating that the water resources carrying capacity of Luochuan County has remained stable over the years.4、Establishment of a water resources optimization allocation modelOn the basis of considering the factors influencing the regional water resources carrying capacity,the SD model for the optimal allocation of water resources in Luochuan County was established by applying the system dynamics theory.Historical data from 2010-2019 was used to test the main variables such as resident population,GDP,total water consumption and industrial water consumption,and the results showed that the errors were all within an acceptable range(10%)and the model had good performance.5、Optimal allocation of water resources carrying capacityBased on the established SD model for water resource optimization configuration,with the goal of ensuring sustainable economic and social development and focusing on total control,supply-demand coordination,and ecological protection,conventional development,economic priority,water-saving and pollution-reducing parallel development,and comprehensive development optimization configurations were designed by adjusting sensitive parameters.The carrying capacity of water resources under each scheme was simulated and analyzed from the perspectives of water quantity and quality.The data normalization method and AHP were combined to quantify scheme selection.The results showed that the carrying capacity index of water resources in the conventional development scheme decreased and reached an "unfavorable" state,failing to meet the requirement of sustainable development of water resource carrying capacity in Luochuan County.Although the rapid development scheme had the fastest economic growth,the water consumption and wastewater discharge also increased significantly,causing a rapid decline in the carrying capacity index of water resources,approaching the "extremely poor" level.In the water-saving and pollution-reducing scheme,the carrying capacity index of water resources significantly improved and reached a "good" state,but economic development was not considered.The comprehensive development scheme considered both economic development and water-saving and pollution-reducing,and its carrying capacity index of water resources was the most ideal,reaching a "good" state.Therefore,this scheme is the most suitable for the optimization configuration of water resources in Luochuan County.