| Objective:As one of the major municipal districts in Nanjing City, Qixia District has long been a little behind other municipal districts in the development of health industries as well as some other aspects. However, in order to solve this problem, Nanjing Municipal Government has recently listed Qixia District as the ’Key Development Area’ to enhance the overall development of it. Qixia has also done a lot of programs itself aiming to improve its health service quality and capabilities. We compose this thesis intending to analyze the current situation of health resource allocation including index like number of health practitioners, number of inpatient beds, number of health institutions as well as some dynamic index such as the number of patients, hospital income and hospital expenditures. In comparing the current situation of health resources allocation in Qixia District with that of Nanjing City and Jiangsu Province, we want to explore the current comparative level and peculiarities of it, evaluating the efficiency of allocation and predicting the changes in health resource of Qixia District for the next 6 years. Based on the analysis above, we will also try to provide some countermeasures and suggestion on further improving Qixia health resource allocation in order to lay some foundations for the government of Nanjing City and Qixia District when they are doing the thirteenth five-year health planning.Method:We will firstly read some literature on health resource allocation intending to learn about the theories, current situation and research progress of different studies of health resource allocation and health planning in China as well as some other countries. Then we will use the descriptive study method to analyze the current health resource allocation of Qixia District and explore the peculiarities of it. In applying TOPSIS Analysis, Synthetical Index Method and Data Envelopment Analysis on the data we collected, we want to compare the efficiency of Qixia resource allocation with different years of it and also with other districts of Nanjing City to better evaluate the current comparative level of it. After that, we will use model GM(1,1) of Grey Forecast Analysis to predict the major index of Qixia health resource for the next 6 years. In the end, we will combine the results above with some policies and provisions of China and Jiangsu Province to further explore the problems and deficiencies of resource allocation in Qixia District aiming to offer some suggestions on how to improve it in the next few years.Result:TOPSIS and Synthetical Index Method produced the same result for health resource allocation rankings, presenting a descending order year by year for year 2009-2014 which also indicates that the efficiency of allocation is increasing each year during this period. According to the result of Data Envelopment Analysis, Qixia District turned out to be DEA effective and relatively good in the aspect of health resources allocation compared with other districts of Nanjing. Its economies of scale remains invariant which indicates that the ratio of resource input and output has reached an ideal situation. After applying GM(1,1) to forecast the change in some health resource index, we predict that by year 2020, the number of health practitioners in Qixia District will reach 5,005, the number of licensed practicing (or assistant) physicians will reach 1,655, the number of registered nurses will be 2,580, inpatient beds will be increased to 2,861 while the total population of the district will be 461,908. All of these indicators we selected are predicted to experience a remarkable increase compared with that of 2014. It is also predicted that the demand of different health resource index will also experience a notable increase. By 2020, the demand for the number of licensed practicing (or assistant) physicians, the number of hospital beds and the number of registered nurses will reach 1,817,3,708 and 2,705 respectively.Conclusion:It can be clearly seen from our results that the whole health industry in Qixia District has experienced a remarkable development and improvement in recent years. Currently the efficiency of health resources allocation and utilization has been relatively good. Non-public health institutions and primary health institutions are playing a very important role in the health industry of the district. However, Qixia is still facing a lot of problems such as the unmet health resources demand, relatively low professional skills for health practitioners, imbalanced ratio of doctors to nurses, deficiency in medical research and education and relatively higher drug prices. We suggest Qixia try to solve these problems by increasing the input to health industries, put more energies into health planning, setting up more cooperation programs to make use of its geographic advantage, pay attention to health practitioners training and talents absorbing, and continue to encourace the development of non-govermental health institutions in order to increase the health service quality and make an overall improvement in all aspects of health industries in Qixia District. |
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