| In 2016,the CPC Central Committee and The State Council pointed out in the outline of Healthy China 2030 plan([2016] No.32)that "rational allocation and effective utilization of health resources are the key to people’s access to basic medical services." On November 3,2020,the CENTRAL Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC)pointed out in the Proposal for the Formulation of the 14 th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for2035: "Accelerate the expansion of quality medical resources and balanced regional distribution." The development of health services is directly related to the realization of the strategic goal of "healthy China".Health services provide health and medical care for all,ensure people’s safety and health,and are an important pillar of economic and social stability and development.However,the current mode of health resource allocation in China is still not consistent with the health needs of the people,and the problem of medical resource allocation is widespread.For example,the allocation of medical resources between regions,urban and rural areas,and institutions is not equal.This has not only affected the physical health of the country’s residents,but also seriously affected the development of the health service system.So the allocation of health resources development present situation,fairness and efficiency,based on the quantity,quality and distribution of medical and health resources in structure,health services between supply,demand and utilization of in-depth analysis,found that the allocation of health resources in our country,the problems of specific medical resource allocation fairness and efficiency in our country,To provide guidance for the development and management of healthcare system strategy,and to provide reference for equitable and efficient allocation of health resources and improvement of healthcare service level.By analyzing the current situation of medical resource allocation,this paper explores the distribution of medical resources in China and clarifies the main problems existing in the allocation of medical resources in China.With 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)as the research object,the equity of medical resource allocation in China from 2015 to 2020 was calculated by using gini coefficient,Theil index and agglomeration degree.Using three-stage data envelopment analysis and excluding environmental factors and random factors,this paper studies the change of health resource allocation efficiency from 2015 to 2020.This paper uses grey forecasting modeling method to forecast and analyze the development trend of medical resources in China from 2021 to 2025,and evaluates the fairness and efficiency according to the forecast data.Through research,we get the following conclusion: the health human resource allocation imbalance between organizations,lack of high quality medical talents at the grass-roots level,unreasonable health financial resources allocation between urban and rural,regional health resources allocation of resources difference obvious,infection of hospital beds utilization efficiency is not high,and grassroots beds with inadequate.Gini coefficient shows that the equity of health resources allocation by population is better than that by area during 2015-2020.Theil Index shows that the differences among eastern,central and western regions of China during 2015-2020 are the main reason for the inequity of health resource allocation.The calculation and study of health resource concentration degree show that in 2020,health resources are mainly concentrated in Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Guangdong and other provinces with relatively developed economy,while the health resource concentration degree in yunnan,Tibet,Qinghai and other vast western regions is relatively low,that is,health resources are relatively lacking.According to the analysis of the data envelope results of the three stages,the comprehensive utilization efficiency of the first stage showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2020.After excluding the impact of environmental variables such as GDP,urbanization,population density,illiteracy rate and total dependency ratio,the overall medical resource allocation efficiency in China is even less ideal.Based on the grey prediction model,we evaluated the fairness of medical resource index prediction data and found that the allocation of medical resource in 2021-2025 should be more equitable in terms of geographical area under the condition of reasonable population distribution.The unfairness of medical resource allocation is still caused by regional differences.Medical resources are still highly concentrated in provinces with good development prospects.The efficiency measurement of medical resources from 2021 to 2025 shows that the allocation efficiency of medical resources decreases.In conclusion,in order to continuously improve the level of health resource allocation and health resource service capacity in China,the Chinese government should rationally plan the total amount of health resources and optimize the structure of resource input when formulating the standard of resource allocation.Narrow differences in regional allocation of health resources and pay attention to equity in medical resource allocation.The reform should be carried out according to the efficiency type of health resources,and the driving effect of urban agglomeration should be brought into full play. |