The Impact Of Tariff Reduction On China’s Agricultural Product Trade After RCEP Takes Effect

The RCEP agreement formally signed on November 15 th,2020 covers 15 countries including China,South Korea,Japan,Australia,New Zealand and ASEAN,covering a global population of 2.2 billion and nearly 30% of the total GDP.It is a free trade zone with the largest population,the largest economic and trade scale and the most development potential in the world.This has given a shot in the arm to the process of economic globalization,which is full of difficulties and frictions since the WTO.As the core content of the agreement,the tariff commitment has given all member countries new trade opportunities through its more extensive and comprehensive concession arrangement.As an important member of RCEP,can China promote the development of its agricultural products through RCEP? How can we maximize the income of our own agricultural products? Based on this,it is necessary to clarify the impact of tariff changes on China’s agricultural trade,grasp the changing trend,and formulate targeted countermeasures in advance.In this paper,firstly,the theory of regional economic integration is combined with the current trade situation between China and RCEP member countries to analyze the economic effects of China and RCEP.Then,the 10 th GTAP model is used to simulate the economic effects of China after joining RCEP,and the simulation scheme is set according to the tariff commitment table for tax reduction.The simulation results show that:(1)The trade creation effect is remarkable.Through the simulation analysis of GTAP model,it can be found that the economic effects of countries in the region,such as gross domestic product(GDP),social welfare,terms of trade and import and export,have basically changed in a positive direction.It is believed that with the deepening of the openness of member countries,the positive effects will continue to expand.From the industrial point of view,some agricultural products with weak comparative advantages in China will be affected to some extent,and products such as animal and vegetable oils and dairy products will be squeezed by competition from other economies in the RCEP region.(2)For the economies outside the region,the establishment of RCEP Free Trade Zone will have a certain negative impact on their economies,especially on Russia and India.For India,RCEP should be re-added at the right time to achieve mutual benefit and win-win.Finally,on the basis of the above,some targeted policy suggestions are put forward.China should actively maintain its cooperative relations with all member States;Secondly,China should actively expand its export market,consolidate its dominant position in RCEP,and set an example to reduce the non-tariff barriers promised in the agreement;Finally,we should further enhance the market competitiveness of products and promote industrial cooperation.