Study On The Effect Of Tariff Reduction On Chinese Agricultural Exports Under RCEP Framework

China has a large population,a vast territory,and abundant products,and agriculture is one of the important industries in China,agricultural products are related to people’s livelihood and are the basis of people’s livelihood,food security is related to national security,and trade in agricultural products affects economic operation.The accession of six countries and regions-China,Japan,Australia,New Zealand and ASEAN-to the RCEP is bound to promote the economic integration of the regions concerned,and its tariff concessions will certainly have a greater impact on China’s agricultural trade.Therefore,in order to clarify the specific impact of tariff concessions on China’s agricultural trade in the context of RCEP,this paper conducts a study based on the GTAP model.Firstly,based on the text of the RCEP agreement,this paper compares the relevant provisions related to agricultural trade,such as tariff commitments and customs valuation,to lay the foundation for the later empirical analysis and scenario simulation.Secondly,based on the available data,this paper identifies agricultural products with HS codes 1-24 and 50-53 as research objects,and uses descriptive statistical analysis to analyse the agricultural trade situation between China and RCEP member countries in recent years,and uses index analysis to measure the competitiveness of China and each member country in agricultural products.The results show that the trade in agricultural products between RCEP member countries is close,but although China’s trade in agricultural products has taken up a significant share in the world,its competitiveness is still low and it is in a disadvantageous position in the competition.In the empirical analysis,this paper uses the GTAP model to redefine regions and industrial sectors,and sets up two scenarios in the short and long term,focusing on imports and exports,economic growth and changes in social welfare,to study the impact of the RCEP tariff concessions on China’s and the world’s agricultural trade in two stages,from both Chinese and global perspectives.Unlike previous studies that set tariff concessions uniformly across all agricultural sectors,this paper sets tariff concessions by country based on the tariff concessions of each sector in the RCEP tariff reduction commitment table.The results show that the signing of the RCEP has a positive effect on the overall welfare of the world,and has a positive effect on China’s economic growth and imports and exports,with an increase in export value and export prices,but with a small deterioration in the terms of trade.In terms of industrial sectors,most of our exports in the agricultural sector have increased,with the most significant positive boost to oil seeds,fats and sugar products,but exports of certain products in which other member countries have a comparative advantage,such as milk and its products,will be hit to some extent.Finally,based on the research results,this paper proposes countermeasures based on the signing of RCEP and China’s basic national conditions: improve quality standards for agricultural products,strengthen the support and training for enterprises,create landmark agricultural brands,optimize the the agricultural export chain,and deepen cooperation with member countries in multiple levels and wide fields.