Empirical Study On The Impact Of RCEP On Global Economy And Trade With GTAP

In the context of the reshaping of the world trading system and the emergence of anti-globalization,developed countries that advocate free trade face the problem of economic slowdown,while rapidly developing emerging economies attach great importance to the strengthening of global value chain.With the failure of the World Trade Organization(WTO),there have been a series of anti-globalization phenomena such as the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the US’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP).Countries are turning to bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements to ease the global economic crisis caused by anti-globalization such as COVID-19,trade friction and trade discrimination through regional economic integration,among which the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)agreement is highly expected.In order to solve the problem of deepening fragmented trade caused by bilateral trade cross,ASEAN initiated the RCEP agreement in 2012,and finally signed it with five countries including China,Japan,South Korea,Australia and New Zealand by the end of 2020.Since then,the world’s largest free trade zone with the largest population,the largest economic scale and the most potential for development has been officially launched.This paper is carried out under the background of RCEP being formally signed,the content of the agreement having been determined,and the member states entering the stage of final approval.Based on the relevant theories of free trade zones and relevant literature research,combined with the basic trade situation of RCEP member countries,this paper sorted out the tariff commitment table and related documents after THE RCEP came into force,conducted policy simulation with the help of the dynamic GTAP model,and analyzed the influence of changes of various indicators in macroeconomic and foreign trade on the formal implementation of RCEP.A series of empirical studies are conducted on the economic and trade changes between member states and non-member states after the RCEP came into force.The main conclusions are as follows :(1)After the epidemic was brought under control,the social economy bottomed out and rebounded,creating a forcing effect that stimulated higher production levels and import and export demand.The negative impact of the epidemic basically recovered within two years.(2)In the decade after the implementation of the agreement,the economic and trade of RCEP member countries showed a positive growth trend,while that of non-RCEP member countries generally showed a shrinking trend.Such polarization has deepened with the RCEP.Among them,the ROK may be the biggest beneficiary of the RCEP.(3)The signing and implementation of RCEP will have an essential difference in the impact on developing countries and developed countries.In the short term,the economy of developed countries has significantly improved,while the economic promotion of developing countries is relatively insignificant.(4)India’s decision to withdraw from RCEP negotiations in 2019 failed to protect its own economic interests and trade development.(5)The establishment of RCEP is of great significance to China-Japan and CHINA-ROK bilateral trade.(6)The RCEP’s entry into force has boosted China’s overall industrial output and expanded its import and export volume.To some extent,the negative impact of COVID-19 and China-US trade frictions on China can be mitigated.Based on the main conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions :(1)RCEP member states should actively promote the formal entry into force of the RCEP agreement.(2)RCEP member states may further consult on India’s claims and actively promote India’s accession to the RCEP.At the same time,the RCEP is also trying to attract other countries or separate customs territories to join in,so as to further expand the economic and trade scale of the RCEP.(3)Learn from the successful experience of the EU and the North American Free Trade Area,and actively establish an effective dispute settlement mechanism.(4)As the main beneficiary countries,the ROK and ASEAN should play an exemplary role in the early establishment of the FREE Trade Area.Meanwhile,China should strongly support the in-depth implementation of RCEP and promote the process of regional integration in the Asia-Pacific.