Research On The Impact Of RCEP On Bilateral Trade Between China And Other Members

At present,RCEP,the free trade agreement with the largest population,the largest economic and trade scale and the most development potential in the world,officially entered into force on January 1,2022.Studying the evolution of bilateral trade trends of China and other members after RCEP came into force is of great significance for China to prevent international trade risks and seize transformation opportunities.This paper calculates the import tariff variables and non-tariff variables involved in RCEP agreement,and uses GTAP software to impact these variables at the same time,so as to predict the trade changes and trends between China and other RCEP members after RCEP takes effect.The results show that:(1)the overall terms of trade of RCEP members will be improved,especially in ASEAN,but China’s terms of trade will deteriorate to a certain extent.(2)After RCEP came into effect,China has trade creation effect,but the direction and degree of impact on different periods,trading partners and industries are heterogeneous.For example,China and ASEAN have trade creation effects in the fields of minerals and resources,food processing,transportation and communication,heavy industry in Japan,textile industry and public facilities construction in South Korea.(3)The level of intra industry trade in China’s heavy industry,light industry,animal husbandry products,public facilities construction and other industries will continue to improve with the promotion of RCEP,indicating that China and ASEAN will gradually develop from traditional inter industry trade to intra industry trade,which will promote the China’s industrial structure transformation to a certain extent.Overall,the entry into force of RCEP will play an important role in the future economic and trade development of members.The reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers can significantly promote the economic and trade activities of members in RCEP region.With the advancement of RCEP process,it is suggested that RCEP agreement can gradually attract more developing country members,build a broader trade cooperation system and benefit more countries.In addition,it will affect China’s industrial structure to a certain extent.China can seize the opportunity,accelerate the transformation of industrial structure,give full play to the advantages of specific industries,deepen industrial cooperation and strengthen product innovation,create a good business environment and realize the high-quality development of foreign trade.