Research On The Trade Effect Of RCEP Tariff Concession On Chinese Agricultural Products Exported To Japan

Agricultural product trade is an important part of Sino Japanese trade.Under the framework of the RCEP agreement,China and Japan reached a free trade arrangement for the first time,which will reduce tariffs on a large scale.For agricultural products imported from China,Japan’s zero tariff range will eventually reach 58%.The liberalization of trade in goods and other provisions will expand the scale of trade between the two countries,promote agricultural cooperation and develop agricultural industrial chain and value chain.Accoding to the trade data,China exports agricultural products to Japan on a large scale.Japan is China’s largest exporter of agricultural products,but the trade surplus is too large and there is a certain dependence on the Japanese market.Market share,trade competitiveness index and other indicators show that Chinese agricultural products have strong competitiveness in the Japanese market.Firstly,this research analyzes the impact mechanism of RCEP tariff concession on the trade effect of China’s agricultural products exported to Japan from a theoretical perspective.Starting from the static effect and dynamic effect,it is concluded that RCEP tariff concession can produce trade creation and trade diversion effect,reduce the production cost of Chinese producers,obtain price advantage and produce welfare effect.The export structure and terms of trade of Chinese agricultural products to Japan will also be affected.At the same time,it can stimulate competition,deepen international division of labor,bring positive interaction between the improvement of production efficiency and economies of scale,and produce economic growth effect.Secondly,this research conducts empirical analysis,collects and arranges the panel data of China’s agricultural exports to RCEP member countries from 2001 to2020,and constructs an expanded trade gravity model to predict the export potential.Based on the negative correlation between tariffs and the export volume of China’s agricultural products and the specific regression equation,it is found that China’s agricultural procucts export potential to Japan has been declining in recent years by comparing the model trade volume with the actual trade volume,The export potential index is less than 1,the export is insufficient,and its potential can still be tapped.Tariff concessions have room to promote export expansion.Then,by constructing the GTAP model,combined with the tariff concessions of the RCEP agreement,set different tax reduction schemes for agricultural products to simulate the policy impact brought by tariff concessions.The simulation results show that the GDP and welfare levels of China and Japan have been improved to varying degrees,the terms of trade have also been improved,and Japan has benefited more.As for the export of agricultural products to Japan,the export scale and export structure have been affected,producing trade expansion effect.The impact on agricultural products in different sectors is different.The tariff concession of agricultural products has a positive effect on China’s agricultural products exported to Japan.In the short term,some of Japan’s imports may be transferred to other member countries.However,with the expansion of tax reduction,China’s agricultural products export structure will be continuously adjusted and its competitiveness will be enhanced.Finally,based on the conclusion of the article,this research puts forward policy suggestions from the perspective of promoting the implementation of RCEP,improving the export competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products to Japan,optimizing the diversified structure of agricultural products export,and promoting the construction of China,Japan and South Korea FTA and CPTPP.