| In the 21 st century,China has gradually entered the aging period,and the impact of population aging on social and economic development has become more and more significant.China’s economy is currently in a critical period of transition from high growth to high quality development,and the establishment of a modern economic system through optimising industrial structure,transforming development models and changing growth dynamics is the basic way to achieve the national strategic goal of high-quality development.Under the dual challenges of population aging and economic transformation and development,studying the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading can not only understand the relationship between the two in greater depth,but also provide a strong reference for the government to formulate more scientific and reasonable economic development planning and industrial development policies.Firstly,this paper explores the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading based on the concepts of population aging and industrial structure upgrading and other related theories such as demography and industrial economics.Secondly,this paper mainly selects Chinese interprovincial panel data from 2000 to 2019 as the research sample,establishes a dynamic panel regression model,uses SYS-GMM estimation method to empirically test the impact of population aging on Chinese industrial structure upgrading,examines whether the deepening of population aging has a hindering effect on the national and regional optimization and rationalisation of industrial structure respectively,at the same time,identifies the moderating role of technological innovation in the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading.This paper analyses the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading based on two perspectives on the optimization and rationalisation of industrial structure,and the main findings are as follows:Firstly,population aging has a negative effect on the optimization of industrial structure in the national,central and western regions,while it has a nonsignificant effect on the eastern region.Secondly,the effect of population aging on the rationalisation of industrial structure is insignificant for both the national and eastern region,but significantly negative for the central and western regions.Thirdly,technological innovation plays a positive moderating role in the impact of population aging on the optimization of industrial structure in both the national and east-central regions with the same level of significance,while in the western region,the moderating effect of technological innovation is not significant.Fourthly,technological innovation has a significant positive moderating effect on the rationalisation of industrial structure in both the national and east-central regions,but at different levels of significance,while in the western region,technological innovation doesn’t have a significant moderating effect. |
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