| According to the 2015 World Population Prospects report,by 2050,China’s population aged 60 years and over will reach 36.5%,which means that China’s population aging situation is even more severe and it has become one of the most serious population aging countries.Unlike developed countries such as Europe and the United States,China is in an age of underdeveloped economy and is entering the stage of population aging,and the aging degree is continuously accelerating,which has a significant impact on the healthy development of our economy.In fact,while China’s aging is deepening,China’s economic development has entered a stage of highquality development,and the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure has become a major reform challenge.Then,as an important variable that affects economic activity,how is the direction and intensity of the increasing aging of China’s industrial structure? In addition,China has a vast area,and the distribution of population between different regions is different and unbalanced,leading to large differences in the degree of aging between regions.Are there any regional heterogeneity of these effects? These issues are worthy of attention.Exploring these issues has important guiding significance for studying the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading,and then for China’s economic development.Focusing on the issues raised above,this article attempts to analyze the impact of aging on the upgrading of industrial structure from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Theoretical analysis is the mechanism to explain the effect of aging on the industrial structure,and empirical research is to empirically test the influence direction and intensity of aging on the industrial structure based on the theoretical analysis framework,and whether these effects have regional heterogeneity.To this end,based on combing relevant literature and theories,this paper constructs a theoretical framework for aging to influence the upgrading of industrial structure,and then uses 30 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions in China from 2000 to2018 as samples to empirically study the effects of population aging Regional heterogeneity and spatial effects of industrial structure upgrading.According to the results of empirical research,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure shows significant regional heterogeneity.The national,eastern and central regions have a promoting effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure.The performance in the west is not obvious,while in the northeast,it has a suppressing effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure.(2)The aging population has a relatively obvious spatial effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure.The specific manifestations are: the impact of population aging on the upgrading of local and surrounding industrial structure has a driving effect,and the direct effect is more significant when it affects the surrounding area through the space spillover effect.(3)Controlling variables The degree of China’s naturalization and the level of opening up have a significant inhibitory effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure,and the child support ratio,the level of urbanization,and the level of infrastructure have not significantly promoted it.Based on the above research conclusion,the policy suggestions put forward in this paper are: adjust the population policy and the corresponding policy of encouraging fertility,coordinate the development of population and industry,give full play to the driving effect of industrial agglomeration,adjust the structure of attracting foreign investment,promote the further reform of state-owned enterprises and steadily promote the process of urbanization. |
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