The Influence Of Aging Population On Upgrading Of Industrial Structure In Jiangxi Province

In 2005,the proportion of people aged 65 or above in Jiangxi exceeded 7 percent for the first time,marking the beginning of an aging society in Jiangxi Province.By 2021,the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in Jiangxi Province has risen to 11.89%.Although it is still in a state of mild population aging,the degree of population aging has accelerated and deepened significantly.As the "demographic dividend" of Jiangxi Province gradually fades,the problems of industrial structure which were previously covered by the highspeed economic growth also begin to appear.Under the background of population aging,how to adjust the industrial structure reasonably and promote the upgrading of industrial structure is the key to achieve high quality economic development in Jiangxi Province.Therefore,this thesis studies the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure in Jiangxi Province,so as to seek a high-quality development path suitable for the current background of population aging in Jiangxi Province.In view of this,firstly,based on the research status at home and abroad,this thesis makes a theoretical analysis of population aging,industrial structure and its influence mechanism;Secondly,from the perspective of time and space,the present situation and evolution trend of population aging,industrial structure and employment structure in Jiangxi Province are described and analyzed.Then,based on the panel data of prefecture-level Jiangxi Province from2010 to 2021,an empirical analysis was carried out to study whether there was an intermediary effect and the effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure in Jiangxi Province from the two aspects of labor supply and aging consumption demand.Finally,science and education input and economic level are taken as threshold variables to investigate whether the aging population has threshold effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.The results show that:(1)Compared with other central provinces,Jiangxi Province has a lower degree of population aging,but its development speed is faster.(2)There are regional differences in population aging in Jiangxi Province.The aging degree in northern Jiangxi Province is higher than that in southern Jiangxi Province.The aging degree in Fuzhou City and Shangrao City develops the fastest,while that in Pingxiang City and Jiujiang City is the deepest.(3)Jiangxi Province has gradually changed into a "three two one" industrial structure.The financial industry and other service industries have broad development prospects,but the adjustment of employment structure is slow.(4)The aging of population in Jiangxi Province promotes the upgrading of industrial structure.(5)In the influence of aging population on industrial structure upgrading in Jiangxi Province,the aging consumption demand plays a positive mediating effect,while the labor supply plays a negative mediating effect.(6)The aging population has threshold effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.Jingdezhen,Jiujiang,Yingtan,Nanchang and Xinyu should appropriately increase the investment in science and education,and Xinyu,Pingxiang,Jingdezhen and Yingtan should improve their economic level to promote the upgrading of local industrial structure.According to the research results,this thesis puts forward the following suggestions: first,formulate corresponding measures to cope with the aging population in Jiangxi Province,encourage subsidies to have a third child;Secondly,we should make reasonable use of the elderly labor force,adjust the retirement age of Jiangxi Province properly,increase the parttime jobs of the elderly population,and encourage the re-employment of the elderly.Third,actively develop the "silver hair" industry to meet the consumption needs of the elderly;Fourthly,Jiangxi should increase the investment in science and education,develop the economy and adjust the industrial structure actively.