| With the rapid economic development,the upgrading of industrial structure has been paid more and more attention.The 14 th Five-Year Plan points out that,on the basis of safeguarding national defense,food,ecology,energy and industry security,the traditional advantageous industries should be transformed and developed to enhance their competitive advantages,and then a new balanced industrial structure should be formed.In recent years,the development mode of industrial structure in Liaoning Province has changed and the coordination ability between industries also has problems.As a traditional old industrial base,population factors play a great role in it.However,with the general trend of aging at home and abroad,Liaoning Province began to step into the threshold of an aging society in 1997,and the aging degree gradually deepened every year.In 2017,Liaoning Province entered a deep aging society,and its population structure has been faced with severe problems.Therefore,we should first study the direct impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure in Liaoning Province,and also study the variables that play an intermediary effect in the process of industrial structure upgrading,and then put forward targeted policy suggestions according to the empirical results.This paper studies the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading through direct effect model and intermediary effect model.Through the analysis of the regression results,it can be seen that the deepening of the aging population will inhibit the upgrading of industrial structure and rational development of industrial structure,that is,it is not conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure.Through the research on the four intermediary variables of labor supply quantity,labor supply quality,consumption demand quantity and consumption demand level,the reduction of labor supply quantity will affect the upgrading of industrial structure,which may be because the reduction of labor factor supply will break the coordinated allocation of the market and is not conducive to the overall upgrading of industrial structure.The improvement of labor supply quality will significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure,and the accumulation of human capital will promote the transformation and upgrading of labor-intensive enterprises,thus promoting the upgrading of industrial structure.The increase of consumption demand and consumption expenditure will promote the upgrading of industrial structure,because most of the elderly consumers are in medical care and residential housing,which belong to the tertiary industry.The rapid development of the tertiary industry will promote the development of industrial structure to the upgrading direction.According to the results of the mediating effect test on the four mediating variables,it is particularly important to ensure that Liaoning Province is in the state of demographic dividend on the premise of conforming to the development trend of aging.Liaoning Province can formulate policies to introduce talents and encourage the old people who want and are willing to find jobs to find jobs again,so as to give full play to their own value.At the level of demand,it is very important to build the cultural tourism industry and guarantee the construction of medical service system in Liaoning Province.We should build our own scenic spot brand,attract the consumption of elderly tourists,complete the medical security system,solve the worries of the elderly and guarantee their life. |
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