| With the improvement of our country’s economic and social development level,the structure of population has also taken an obvious change.The fertility rate has gradually decreased,the female bearing age has been extending,and the intention to give birth has also been decreasing.The challenge of population aging to economic growth is becoming more and more fierce.According to the population data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,as early as 2000,the aging rate of China reached 10.2%,one step into the ranks of the aging society.By 2021,the population aged 65 or above will account for 14.2 percent,approaching the age of deep aging.Population is an important factor to promote regional economic growth,and the upgrading of industrial structure is an important means of high-quality economic development.The value of the upgrading of industrial structure is not only reflected in the improvement of efficiency within the industrial sector driven by technology,but also the huge dividends brought to the economy by the upgrading of industrial structure.Population aging is one of the internal forms in the process of modern economic development.The coordinated development of population structure and industrial structure is the prerequisite of healthy economic development.Under the trend of continuous development of aging population,how to solve the dilemma of aging population,rationally plan the industrial layout,"unlock" the new ways of upgrading the industrial structure from various aspects,so that our country can smoothly cross the "middle-income trap",and realize the high-quality economic development.Based on the existing research on the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading,this paper makes clear the conceptual connotation of population aging and industrial structure upgrading,laying a good foundation for the subsequent research.Then,according to the actual data of our country,we will further understand the aging status quo,aging regional difference,industrial structure upgrading status quo.Then,starting from the perspective that the aging of population affects the upgrading of industrial structure through the demand side and the supply side,it theoretically explores the effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure through five ways: the aging demand effect,the aging burden effect,the human capital effect,the labor endowment effect and the labor productivity effect.Finally,the provincial panel data of 30 provinces(except Xizang)from 2008 to2019 were used to construct the baseline regression model and the intermediary effect model to explore the influence of population aging on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and analyze the regional differences.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)from the perspective of macro,the aging of Chinese population has a positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.(2)From the perspective of transmission mechanism,the aging population accelerates the accumulation of human capital of the whole society through improving education level,and the rise of labor cost "forces" the improvement of labor productivity,thus promoting the upgrading of industrial structure;However,aging will also bring challenges to the upgrading of industrial structure by restraining labor endowments,increasing family and social burdens,and the development of population aging has not obviously promoted the consumption demand of the whole society.Therefore,it can be seen that the aging consumption market in China is still in its embryonic stage.(3)In the test of regional differences,the promoting effect of population aging in the eastern region is as follows: the improvement of labor productivity and the acceleration of human capital accumulation;The development of aging population in each region has hindered the upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern and western regions by restraining labor endowment.The aging population in western China impedes the upgrading of industrial structure by inhibiting labor productivity.The mediating effect in the way of labor productivity in the central region is not fully reflected.The mediating effect of human capital effect and old age burden effect in central and western regions has not yet been reflected.The above study shows that population aging is an inevitable result of modernization,population aging does not necessarily impede the process of the upgrading of industrial structure.Our country should actively face the development of population aging,pay attention to the change of the population structure and industrial structure,and formulate corresponding industrial policies to convert the challenge into opportunity,realize the healthy aging and promote the industry structure was further upgraded. |
PDF Full Text Request