The Influence Of Population Aging On The Upgrading Of County Agricultural Structure In Heilongjiang Province

As the economy of Heilongjiang Province enters a new normal,promoting the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure and transforming the dynamics of economic development have become major tasks.It is necessary and urgent to promote the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure in Heilongjiang Province and to promote high-quality economic development.The results of the seventh population census have raised renewed concerns about the ageing of the population.The extent of ageing in Heilongjiang province far exceeds the national level of ageing.In the critical period of economic transformation in Heilongjiang Province and in the context of the gradual deepening of population ageing,it is of theoretical and practical importance to study the impact of population ageing on the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure in Heilongjiang Province.The impact of population ageing on the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure is an intricate and complex process combining direct and indirect effects.The core issue of this paper is the impact of population ageing on the upgrading of agricultural industry structure.The scope of this study focuses on Heilongjiang Province,a large agricultural province with a serious population ageing in China,and explores the internal mechanism of population ageing on the upgrading of agricultural industry structure at the county level from both demand and supply perspectives.Using county panel data and farm household research data for 2000,2010 and 2020 in Heilongjiang Province,this paper measures the level of upgrading of the agricultural industry structure in each county in Heilongjiang Province and explores the direct impact mechanism,demand-side effect and supply-side effect of population ageing on the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure.The study found that:firstly,population ageing in Heilongjiang Province has gone through four stages:steady growth,steady decline,steady growth and rapid growth,and the characteristics of the agricultural industrial structure at different stages are different;the overall structure of the agricultural industrial structure in Heilongjiang Province is in a more stable low-end equilibrium state;secondly,the level of population ageing in Heilongjiang Province is still above and below the moderate level,and at the current stage,population ageing is generally beneficial to the agricultural Secondly,the level of population ageing in Heilongjiang Province is still at a moderate level,and at the current stage,population ageing is generally conducive to the upgrading of the industrial structure and has a significant promotion effect on the demand side.There is a significant non-linear relationship between population ageing on the demand side and the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure,with the degree of influence changing with changes in the structure of residents’ consumption and government expenditure,and there is a significant single threshold effect;thirdly,there is a negative labour supply effect on the supply side and a human capital "pushback" effect on the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure in Heilongjiang Province."The labour supply effect of population ageing The labour supply effect of population ageing is manifested in the fact that the technical efficiency of older farmers is significantly lower than that of non-older farmers,and the human capital effect of population ageing is manifested in the fact that non-older farmers are more likely to adopt new technologies,and the application of new technologies significantly improves the technical efficiency of non-older farmers compared to older farmers.The decline in the quantity of labour supply is detrimental to the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure,and the enhancement of human capital can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of supply-side shocks.Based on the findings,policy recommendations related to the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure are proposed to better grasp and respond to the opportunities and challenges brought about by the ageing population.