| Since my country officially entered an aging society at the end of the 20 th century,the number and proportion of the elderly population has continued to rise.From 2002 to 2021,the number of elderly people has increased from 93.77 million to more than200 million people,and the number of elderly people accounts for the proportion of the total population.From 7.30% to 14.20%,and my country’s aging shows a trend of accelerated deepening.According to the forecast of the World Health Organization,by2050,China may become the most aging country in the world.Therefore,population aging is an important and long-term factor affecting my country’s economic development and industrial structure upgrading.The Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to actively respond to aging,and to accurately grasp and make good use of the trend of aging.The deepening of the aging degree will lead to a continuous decline in the number of labor force.When small and mediumsized enterprises with low profit margins face the problem of labor shortage,their survival will become more difficult,and they may be forced to withdraw from the market.Without the support of these low-end industries,it is not conducive to the upgrading of the industrial structure.On the other hand,aging will increase the pension burden on families and society.Families may crowd out investment in education for young people.The government may increase income and reduce expenditure,increase the tax burden of enterprises and individuals,and reduce expenditure on science and education funds,all of which are not conducive to The society improves the level of technological innovation,which in turn hinders the upgrading of the industrial structure.However,not all of the negative effects of aging are.The elderly have higher consumer demand for medical services,health care and other aging industries than young people,and the aging industry belongs to the tertiary industry.Therefore,aging will promote the upgrading of the industrial structure through the effect of aging consumption.On the other hand,the shortage of labor will force enterprises,especially labor-intensive enterprises,to improve their technical level to reduce labor demand,which will lead to the transfer of personnel from the primary and secondary industries to the tertiary industry,thereby promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure.It can be seen that aging will have an impact on the upgrading of my country’s industrial structure through various channels.Therefore,this paper theoretically analyzes and empirically tests the impact of my country’s aging on the upgrading of industrial structure,as well as the possible nonlinear impact.This paper studies the problem according to the following framework: first,it defines the concepts of aging,industrial structure upgrading,and financial structure,and then reads and summarizes relevant literature to form a literature review;The current situation of the structure is sorted out,and its development characteristics are summarized;thirdly,it is theoretically analyzed through which channels aging affects the upgrading of my country’s industrial structure,as well as the internal reasons for the possible non-linear impact,and selects the province from 2005 to 2019.Based on panel data,a panel fixed-effect model and a panel threshold model are established to empirically test the nonlinear impact of aging on the industrial structure.Finally,based on the empirical results,basic conclusions are formed and relevant policy recommendations are put forward.The basic conclusions drawn in this paper are:(1)from an overall perspective,my country’s aging has a significant positive impact on the industrial structure;(2)my country’s aging has a significant double threshold effect on the industrial structure,that is,as a region increases the financial structure of China has moved from a low threshold to a high threshold,and aging will play an increasingly important role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure. |
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