Comprehensive Evaluation And Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Yunnan Province Based On Moment Estimation-TOPSIS-RSR Mode

Nowadays,≥with≥the≥rapid≥development≥of≥the≥global≥economy,≥water≥resources≥shortage,≥water≥resources≥security,≥water≥supply≥and≥demand≥contradiction≥and≥other≥problems≥are≥increasingly≥aggravated.≥Water≥resources≥have≥become≥a≥key≥factor≥affecting≥social≥and≥economic≥development.≥In≥this≥context,≥it≥is≥of≥great≥practical≥significance≥to≥study≥the≥carrying≥capacity≥of≥water≥resources,≥optimize≥the≥evaluation≥method,≥analyze≥the≥spatio-temporal≥variation≥of≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity,≥and≥find≥out≥the≥shortcomings≥of≥regional≥water≥resources≥development.Based≥on≥this,≥this≥paper≥firstly≥analyzes≥the≥main≥problems≥existing≥in≥the≥development≥and≥utilization≥of≥water≥resources≥in≥Yunnan≥Province,≥preliminarily≥determines≥the≥alternative≥evaluation≥indicators≥according≥to≥the≥coupling≥theory≥of≥water≥resources,≥ecological≥environment,≥social≥and≥economic≥system,≥and≥eliminates≥the≥repetitive≥indicators≥through≥the≥screening≥of≥pathological≥index≥and≥information≥overlap,≥so≥as≥to≥construct≥a≥comprehensive≥evaluation≥index≥system.≥Then,≥the≥moment≥estimation≥method≥was≥used≥to≥combine≥the≥four≥subjective≥and≥objective≥weighting≥methods≥to≥calculate≥the≥combined≥weights≥of≥each≥index.≥Then,≥the≥moment≥estimation-Topsis≥RSR≥model≥was≥established≥to≥comprehensively≥evaluate≥and≥reasonably≥grade≥the≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity≥of≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥its≥cities≥during≥2008-2020,≥and≥the≥trend≥and≥spatial≥distribution≥of≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity≥were≥analyzed≥from≥the≥perspective≥of≥time≥and≥space.≥Then≥the≥coupling≥coordination≥degree≥model≥was≥introduced≥to≥analyze≥the≥coupling≥coordination≥degree≥of≥each≥subsystem≥of≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity≥in≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥16≥cities≥from≥the≥perspective≥of≥time≥series≥and≥spatial≥distribution.≥Using≥the≥obstacle≥degree≥model,≥the≥main≥obstacle≥factors≥restricting≥the≥development≥of≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity≥in≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥its≥cities≥were≥quantitatively≥analyzed.≥Finally,≥the≥paper≥comprehensively≥analyzes≥the≥status≥and≥problems≥of≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity≥in≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥its≥cities,≥and≥puts≥forward≥scientific≥and≥reasonable≥countermeasures≥and≥suggestions.≥The≥main≥conclusions≥are≥as≥follows:（1）Based≥on≥pearson≥correlation≥analysis,≥Pathological≥indicators≥and≥information≥fungibility≥were≥introduced,≥and≥18≥indicators≥with≥less≥fungibility≥of≥information,≥such≥as≥annual≥precipitation,≥water≥resources≥development≥and≥utilization≥rate,≥water≥consumption≥rate≥for≥ecological≥environment,≥per≥capita≥wetland≥area,≥urbanization≥rate≥and≥economic≥density,≥were≥selected≥from≥the≥alternative≥indicators≥to≥form≥the≥final≥evaluation≥index≥system.≥By≥analyzing≥and≥comparing≥the≥evaluation≥values,≥the≥information≥contribution≥rate≥of≥the≥selected≥index≥system≥reached≥98.848%,≥and≥the≥relative≥deviation≥values≥were≥all≥lower≥than≥5%,≥which≥avoided≥the≥influence≥of≥index≥overlap≥on≥the≥evaluation≥results.（2）Analytic≥hierarchy≥Process≥（AHP）≥and≥REM≥method≥are≥selected≥to≥measure≥the≥subjective≥weight,≥CRITIC≥method≥and≥entropy≥weight≥method≥are≥used≥to≥measure≥the≥objective≥weight,≥and≥moment≥estimation≥comprehensive≥weight≥method≥is≥used≥to≥combine≥four≥subjective≥and≥objective≥weights≥to≥obtain≥the≥weight≥of≥each≥index,≥among≥which≥the≥weight≥of≥per≥capita≥water≥resources≥is≥the≥largest≥（0.073）.≥The≥weight≥of≥per≥capita≥retail≥sales≥of≥consumer≥goods≥and≥water≥consumption≥of≥ten≥thousand≥yuan≥of≥GDP≥is≥the≥least≥（0.047）.≥（3）According≥to≥the≥evaluation≥results,≥the≥grading≥standard≥of≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity≥in≥Yunnan≥Province≥is≥divided≥into≥5≥levels.≥They≥are≥acceptable≥(₄)≥00.653),≥medium≥(0.653>₄)≥>0.537),≥weak≥(0.537>₄)≥00.492),≥overloaded≥(0.4920₄)>0.411),≥and≥severely≥overloaded≥(0.4110₄)).≥From≥2008≥to≥2020,≥the≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity≥of≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥its≥cities≥and≥municipalities≥showed≥an≥overall≥rising≥trend,≥and≥some≥cities≥and≥municipalities≥had≥great≥fluctuations.In≥2012≥and≥2020,≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥most≥of≥its≥cities≥had≥the≥lowest≥and≥highest≥water≥resources≥carrying≥capacity,≥respectively.≥The≥water≥resources≥system≥is≥fragile≥and≥fluctuates≥greatly≥under≥the≥influence≥of≥climate≥factors.（4）The≥calculation≥results≥of≥coupling≥coordination≥degree≥show≥that≥the≥coupling≥coordination≥degree≥of≥subsystems≥in≥each≥city≥of≥Yunnan≥province≥gradually≥increases≥in≥time≥sequence,≥and≥the≥overall≥trend≥is≥good;≥Spatially,≥the≥western≥mountainous≥area≥is≥larger,≥while≥the≥eastern≥plain≥area≥is≥relatively≥smaller.≥The≥13-year≥coupling≥coordination≥degree≥fluctuated≥in≥the≥range≥of≥[0.406,0.885].≥In≥2020,≥the≥coupling≥coordination≥degree≥of≥all≥cities≥and≥states≥reached≥the≥moderate≥coordination≥level.（5）The≥calculation≥results≥of≥obstacle≥degree≥model≥show≥that,≥among≥the≥four≥subsystems,≥the≥highest≥obstacle≥degree≥is≥the≥ecological≥environment≥subsystem≥（39.88%）,≥followed≥by≥the≥water≥resources≥subsystem≥（35.05%）,≥indicating≥that≥these≥two≥systems≥will≥play≥a≥certain≥limiting≥role≥in≥the≥development≥of≥Yunnan≥Province.≥The≥main≥obstacle≥factors≥in≥the≥index≥layer≥are:≥eco-environmental≥water≥consumption≥rate,≥per≥capita≥water≥resources,≥COD≥discharge≥in≥domestic≥sewage,≥and≥water≥resources≥development≥and≥utilization≥ratio.≥These≥four≥factors≥are≥the≥main≥obstacle≥factors≥for≥the≥development≥of≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥its≥cities.（6）In≥summary,≥the≥measures≥to≥promote≥the≥sustainable≥economic≥and≥social≥development≥of≥Yunnan≥Province≥and≥its≥cities≥and≥cities≥were≥put≥forward,≥that≥is,≥to≥optimize≥the≥distribution≥and≥management≥pattern≥of≥water≥resources≥from≥the≥four≥aspects≥of≥water≥resources,≥ecological≥environment,≥society≥and≥economy,≥strengthen≥the≥management≥of≥water≥rights≥and≥unconventional≥water≥utilization,≥and≥promote≥the≥intensive,≥economical≥and≥efficient≥use≥of≥water≥resources;≥Strengthen≥ecological≥and≥environmental≥protection≥and≥restoration,≥and≥strengthen≥sewage≥supervision≥and≥treatment;≥Promote≥urbanization≥in≥a≥scientific≥and≥reasonable≥way,≥promote≥social≥development,≥and≥accelerate≥the≥transformation≥and≥upgrading≥of≥industrial≥structure.