Reaearch On Comprehensive Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Henan Province

With the development of the world economy and the progress of human society,water shortage is becoming more and more serious,which has gradually become an important factor constraining economic development and the human pursuit of happiness.How to make full use of limited water resources has become a hot and difficult topic in current research.Based on the principle of water control in the new period of"constrain population,agriculture,industrial and town by water resources",this article took 18 cities of Henan Province as the research object,selected the key factors of related industries as evaluation indexes,and constructed the evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity.Then,the improved entropy weight method and the variation coefficient method were used to calculate the combined weight.The relevant data of 2010-2020 were comprehensively evaluated by the TOPSIS method and matter element extension method.The situation and shortcomings of water resources carrying capacity were analyzed from spatial and temporal dimension,and used the obstacle degree model to analyze the main obstacle factors in the index system.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）The overall trend of water resources carrying capacity evaluation model,based on TOPSIS method,has shown a stable development trend.In terms of time,only in 2012-2015and 2017-2020,there were no more than two cities with gradeⅣ,and the other years were all at levelⅢ.In spatial dimension,18 cities in Henan Province,Zhoukou City perennially in gradeⅣ,Anyang,Xinxiang and Shangqiu were at levelⅣfor one year,and the other years were at levelⅢ.in addition,others were at levelⅢduring the study period.（2）The whole has shown a good development trend under the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on the matter-element extension method.In terms of time,there was a significant increase in the number of cities that could be converted to levelⅠin2019 and 2020 compared with other years.From the spatial dimension,except Shangqiu City was more complex,other cities showed a steady or good.（3）The analysis results of the two models,acquired by the matter-element extension method,were generally optimistic.However,under the background of the research,the combination of the two models was better,which can comprehensively reflect the status and development trend of water resources carrying capacity in 18 cities.（4）There was little difference in the affecting factors of each city in the obstacle factor analysis.Under the barrier factor analysis of criterion layer,the biggest barrier criterion layer of each city was"constrain industrial by water resources",followed were"constrain agriculture by water resources"and"constrain population by water resources",and there was little difference between the latter two obstacles.Under the index layer obstacle factor analysis,the largest obstacle factor of 18 cities was GDP per capita（A₈）.Except for Xinxiang,Jiaozuo and Jiyuan,the second obstacle factor was farmland irrigation water per unit area（A₆）.In addition,population density（A₃）,agricultural water consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP（A₉）and per capita water resources（A₁）were also the main influencing factors.Finally,according to the evaluation results,this paper proposes relevant suggestions on how to improve the water resources carrying capacity and"constrain town by water resources"of cities in Henan Provincemprove from the three aspects of"constrain population by water resources","constrain agriculture by water resources"and"constrain industrial by water resources".