Study On Water Resources Supply And Demand Simulation And Forecasting In Jinan City Based On System Dynamics

The Yellow River is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in China.With the rapid development of society,the water resources in the Yellow River Basin reaches the upper limit of load,showing the problems such as scarcity of water resources,insufficient water supply in some areas,waste of water resources,and insufficient utilization of water resources,which seriously restricts the sustainable development of economy and society in the basin and related areas.As one of the main city in Yellow River basin,Jinan is a typical city of water resources shortage.In recent years,a series of issues such as groundwater overexploitation,land subsidence,and spring water stoppage have become hot topics.Water resources have become one of bottleneck factors restricting the development of this city.In order to solve the problem of water resource shortage in Jinan,the system dynamics model of water resources supply and demand system in Jinan is established by using the system dynamics method to study the balance of water resources supply and demand.Furthermore,by adjusting the sub-variables of the water resource subsystem,agricultural subsystem and industrial subsystem in the model,four analysis scenarios are proposed to predict and analyze the future sustainable utilization of water resources in Jinan under different scenarios.Specific research contents and main conclusions are as follows:1.Analysing current situation of water resources system in Jinan.Through data review,the paper analyzes the development and change of water resources endowment,spatial distribution and supply and demand of water resources in Jinan,and finds that the water resources in Jinan are relatively short,uneven in spatial distribution,and relatively stable on the supply side,but the total amount of water resources is small and scarce.On the demand side,the consumption of water resources in various fields is large and shows a trend of gradual expansion.2.Building a water resource supply and demand model for Jinan.Through literature research and analysis of the current situation of water resources in Jinan,the thinking frame of supply and demand model composed of five subsystems of agriculture,industry,ecology,population and water supply resources is built,which uses on building the dynamic model of water supply and demand system in Jinan by using computer software STELLA.Then collecting historical data and comparing model simulation results with historical real data to carry out calibration test on the model provides theoretical support for model prediction research.3.Forecasting the water resources system of Jinan City through scenario simulation.By using scenario analysis method and combining policy guidance,four simulation scenarios are set,namely,maintaining the original development mode,emphasizing economic development mode,emphasizing water-saving priority mode and comprehensive regulation and development mode.By adjusting variable parameters in the water resource supply and demand model of Jinan City and running computer software,the future water shortage situation of Jinan City is simulated and predicted under different scenarios.4.The simulation results under different scenarios show that in the future,Jinan City will face severe water shortage problem without taking any water resources control measures.However,under the water-saving priority mode,the water shortage rate decreased significantly in the case of increasing the recycled water consumption and reducing the natural population growth rate.Combined with relevant water use measures for the economic system,that is,the forecast results of comprehensive regulation and development mode are the best choice.In this scenario,there has been a significant change in the water shortage phenomenon,that is,in 2024,the water supply and demand maintain a balance Then,the water shortage rate will increase year by year.Then,it reached the critical point in 2028,and the water shortage problem will alleviate.Based on the prediction results,suggestions were put forward for the utilization of water resources in Jinan City,such as saving domestic water and constructing ecological water recycling project.On the basis of saving water,comprehensive regulation of economic system was carried out,and water-saving methods such as sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation were promoted to improve the irrigation efficiency of farmland.Meantime,improving the industrial water repetition rate and optimizing the process flow,etc.At the same time,strengthening the supervision of government departments,scientific management of water resources,learning advanced experience combined with local comprehensive management are important as well.