Research On Water Demand Prediction In TOUTUN River Basin

This paper is a part of the recent water resources programming in Toutun river basin. Going with the implement of the project of diverting the water from other river to supply the need of Urumqi, the exploitation and utilization in Toutun river basin are facing rigorous situations. It has become an important section of the programming in Toutun river basin that how to make good use of water resources in the future average year in order to make it develop larger economic benefit. Therefore, this research project that on the water demand of Toutun river has certain realistic meanings.At present, the general coming used forecasting methods for the industrial water, agricultural water and domestic water are tendency method, correlation method and ration method. But these methods only consider limited natural factors. In fact, the water for industry and domesticity is influenced by some other factors, for example, water-price, GDP, GNP and population. The water for agriculture is affected by such factors, planting structure and saving-water irrigation, etc. This paper will discuss the influence on water demand, water price, population, planting construction and water conservation technologies, and forecast the water demand in the future average years from 2010 to 2020 combining the real social and economy situation. Based on the result, combining the real situation of this basin, the solutions to the conflict of water demand and supply in the basin will be supplied to realize sustainable development of the economy, population, environment and water resources use.