Water Resources Supply-Demand Balance Analysis Under Different Scenario In Baotou City

Water resources is an essential natural resource for human survival and one of the most important factors restricting the natural environment and human development.Baotou City is a serious water resource shortage region in north China,whose water consumption accounted for 88.0%of the total available water resources in 2014.This water resource shortage of Baotou City's are typical,therefore water supply and demand analysis is not only beneficial to the future sustainable development of the economic,social and environmental of Baotou City,but also provide reference to other regions.Based on the hydrology data from 2007 to 2012,as well as water environment and social economy data of Baotou City,this research evaluated the water supply and demand balance of main river and region in Baotou City.The main results are as follows:(1)Based on the relevant basic data,the current situation of water supply in Baotou City and the trend of water use under the present situation were analyzed,and the water use efficiency of Baotou City were evaluated.The results showed that the potential of surface water resources development in Baotou City is insufficient,but the agriculture and municipal water supply system,as well as reclaimed water reuse efficiency has considerate improvement space.(2)Based on the NAM and Hydrodynamic modules of mikell,the rainfall-runoff-hydrodynamic model of Baotou City was constructed and the parameters of the model were determined and verified.The results showed that the roughness of the river range from 0.01 to 0.05,the relative error of flow rate of Dongyuan station validation were-14,3%and 16%,which were acceptable.The simulation results of the model consisted with the actual situation,which is suitable for the water quantaty simulation of study area.(3)Based on the rainfall-runoff-hydrodynamic distributed model,the ecological water demand of main rivers(Kundulun River,Erdaosha River,Sidaosha River and Donghe River)and the water balance of Baotou City was calculated.The ecological water demand Satisfaction level were evaluated by the water balance method.The results showed that only the ecological water demand of Sidaosha River met the requirements of ecological water demand in the current situation.Under the planning scenario,the ecological water demand of four rivers can be satisfied by rational allocation of reclaimed water.(4)According to the analysis of the balance of water supply and demand in the four economic development levels,the water supply capacity of Baotou City can support the urban population of 2.46 million by 2017,and 2.7 million by 2020.After the industrial structure adjustment target proposed by the industrial group,the water supply capacity can support 8.5%economic growth rate.To achieve the above-mentioned economic growth rate,the following two ways will be mainly laughched to solve the regional water shortage caused by unbalance distribution of water resource,including build inter-regional water transfer project to achieve the targeted water rights transfer of 68 millio m3,as well as north transfer project of recycled water to achieve amount of 150,000 t/d in total and 80,000 t/d in short-term.