Study On The Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of The Zhongyuan Modern Agricultural Science And Technology Demonstration Area In Henan Province

Carrying capacity of water resources is the basic subject of sustainable development of water resources.With the progress of China's social economy and the development of science and technology,the research on water resources carrying capacity has gradually become an important part of the current water resources research.Zhongyuan modern agricultural science and technology demonstration area is the ministry of science and technology approved the first batch of state-level modern agricultural science and technology demonstration area,with high water consumption of industry and agriculture industry chain makes demonstration area of henan province is the most developed areas at the same time,it also makes it easier to high water consumption per unit of output in this area,water problem has not been effective treatment,and therefore become one of the key problems which restrict the development of the demonstration zone.In order to achieve sustainable development of social economy and water resources in the demonstration area,the following research contents are carried out in this paper:1)On the analysis of the central plains of modern agricultural science and technology demonstration area,on the basis of water shortages,according to the calculated water availability,in this paper,the demonstration area in 2015 water resources in the area of water level and water use efficiency,fully reflects the demonstration of water status quo,on the basis of analyzing the present situation of predicting the demonstration area planning in 2020 and 2030,the water demand situation,and a water balance analysis was carried out.2)An evaluation system of carrying capacity suitable for water resources and water use characteristics in demonstration areas is established and an evaluation model is established.3)The combined weight obtained by analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method is used to assign weight to the evaluation index of the demonstration area.On this basis,the evaluation result of water resource carrying capacity based on the combined weight is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and the result is analyzed.The difference between the bearing capacity of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with equal weight and the bearing capacity evaluation with combined weight is analyzed.The comparison of research results show that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on combination weight is more suitable for the actual situation of the demonstration area.Results show that a demonstration area present situation in water resources carrying capacity in 2015 poor overall condition,mostly in a level 3 can host state,only zhumadian bearing level is close to a good carry,jiaozuo,kaifeng,puyang,xinxiang,bearing capacity of water resources carrying capacity is at level 4 must not state,water resources carrying capacity is poorer,four city water resources development and utilization have been unable to meet the demand of city;For planning years 2020 and 2030,with the improvement of water level,demonstration area comprehensive evaluation results of the numerical increase gradually,jiaozuo,kaifeng,puyang,xinxiang,gradually restored to carry the water resources carrying capacity,zhumadian has entered the state of good carry water,water resources carrying capacity of strong,presented the good development momentum,has made significant results prove that the development and utilization of water resources.This paper analyzes and evaluates the current situation of the central plains modern agricultural science and technology demonstration area in 2015 and the planned situation in 2020 and 2030 of water resources carrying capacity,in order to provide reference basis for the sustainable development and development and utilization of water resources in the social,economic,water resources and environmental system of the region and even the whole henan province.