| Water resources are the basic natural resources of Karamay city and have a strategic position in its economic development.However,because Karamay is located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent,natural precipitation is scarce,and it has the characteristics of severe shortage of water resources and uneven distribution of space and time,which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the local economy and society.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the carrying capacity of water resources for the social,economic and ecological development of Karamay.This paper combines Karamay's actual situation to establish Karamay's water resource evaluation index system,and then uses multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate its water resources carrying capacity in 2000?2015,and combines the relevant planning to carry out the water supply in Karamay in 2020 and 2030 The supply and demand of resources and the carrying capacity of water resources are predicted,and suggestions for improving the carrying capacity of water resources in Karamay are put forward.The main research results of this article are as follows:(1)Established an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity in the study area.Combined with the actual situation of Karamay city,the evaluation system is divided into four subsystems,namely water resource system,social development system,economic development system,and ecological environment system,and the corresponding evaluation indicators are selected under the four subsystem layers,including annual precipitation,Total water use,groundwater supply,water resources per capita,total water supply,population density,natural population growth rate,GDP per capita,water consumption per 10,000 GDP,water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial value added,industrial wastewater discharge,domestic sewage There are 14 evaluation indicators including emissions,urban green coverage and ecological water consumption.(2)Use the triangle distribution membership function to determine and calculate the membership of each evaluation index at each evaluation level,and use the AHP and entropy weight method to determine the weight,and calculate the comprehensive water resource carrying capacity in 2000?2015 The score values are 0.517,0.543,0.386,0.406,0.403,0.403,0.409,0.404,0.396,0.420,0.429,0.416,0.398,0.424,0.427,0.429.The data shows that from 2000 to 2015,Karamay's water resources carrying capacity averaged 0.426,which is a general carrying capacity.(3)According to the Karamay City Water Resources Utilization Plan,taking 2015 as the base year,the method of systematic analysis,qualitative and quantitative analysis is used to carry out the socio-economic development trend and water supply and demand forecast of Karamay City in 2020 and 2030 According to the analysis,the comprehensive scores of water resources carrying capacity in Karamay in 2020 and 2030 are 0.459 and 0.427.(4)According to the water resources carrying capacity evaluation and prediction results of Karamay City,policy recommendations for improving water resources carrying capacity in the region are proposed from four aspects of future water resources management,optimizing and upgrading water use structure,controlling population development,and building a water-saving society.Generally speaking,Karamay has been at a general level for water resources for many years.In the future,the degree of coordination among various subsystems will be improved to a certain extent,and the water resources carrying capacity will generally be in a slow upward trend.However,the population structure and the scale of economic development have put a lot of pressure on water resources carrying capacity,and the capacity for sustainable development is limited.It is expected that the water resources carrying capacity of Karamay city will remain in the general level for a long time. |
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