Dissertation Progress Risk Management And Development Based On Bayesian Networks

Dissertation is the fruit of degree study,and its writing is a complex and dynamic work,which is easily affected by various external factors,and usually has the characteristics of complex process and long working cycle.Effective progress management is very important in the process of dissertation writing,which is not only the guarantee for the successful completion of the dissertation,but also the key to the final quality of the dissertation.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the methods of schedule risk control.This paper made an in-depth analysis of the risk factors in the process of dissertation writing,proposed a Bayesian network based risk control model of dissertation schedule,and designed and developed an application prototype system.Risk identification and risk management of related theory in the first place,the extensive literature research,summarizing the relevant research results of scholars both at home and abroad,established a risk identification method,and explored the basic principle of Bayesian networks in detail,especially the network structure learning and parameter learning methods,for risk identification and risk analysis modeling laid a theoretical foundation.Based on the above theoretical basis,15 paper schedule risk factors with great influence were determined by comprehensive application of literature analysis,brainstorming and questionnaire,etc.,and risk assessment matrix was used to quantitatively express the influence degree of each risk factor on the writing schedule of the paper and its probabilities.Then,according to the first round of the questionnaire to collect the sample data set,the application of K2 algorithm combining expert knowledge,initial Bayesian network structure is established,and then again through the causality analysis and design the second round of the questionnaire to collect data,further optimization andadjustment on the basis of study the network structure and network parameters,finally formed a completely thesis schedule risk analysis model,quantitative analysis to deal with risk factor input thesis schedule risk,and determine the key and sensitive to risk factors.In order to verify the validity of the model,and the advantages and disadvantages of the model are analyzed.Finally,based on the proposed model and according to the software engineering process,the thesis progress management application prototype system based on We Chat applet platform has been analyzed,designed and developed,and the practical approach of the proposed model is explored.