Research On Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Artificial Neural Network

Water resource is an important material basis for supporting the development of human society,and it is the most widely influential factor in nature.At the same time,it is irreplaceable and limited.With the expansion of the world's population,the demand for water resources in people's daily life and industrial and agricultural production has undergone tremendous changes in both quality and quantity.The shortage of water resources,water pollution and low utilization rate of water resources have gradually been paid attention to.People realize that the issue of water resources not only restricts the sustainable development of the social economy,but also poses a threat to human survival.Therefore,the theory of water resources carrying capacity based on the principle of sustainable development should come into being.The research on water resources carrying capacity can be used as a tool to judge whether regional water resources supply and social development are in a coordinated state,and can also provide a certain reference for scientific management of water resources.This article takes Zhangzhou County as the research object.The main research contents and obtained major results of this article are as follows:(1)Analyze the social and economic development and water resources utilization status of Zhaozhou County by consulting the yearbook,the statistical bulletin of social and economic development and other literature materials,and analyze the water resources development and utilization efficiency and social development status of Zhangzhou County from 2010 to 2017.(2)On the basis of referring to the evaluation indexes of water resources carrying capacity in other areas and combining with the regional characteristics,an evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity is established,which can reflect thereal situation of the region.It includes three indexes of water resources system,six indexes of social system,six indexes of economic system and two indexes of ecological environment system,four subsystems with 17 indexes According to the importance and characteristics of the evaluation indicators and drawing on the generally accepted grading standards,they are divided into five levels.(3)The carrying capacity of water resources in Zhaozhou County from 2006 to2016 was analyzed by RBF neural network.The carrying capacity grades were 1.70,1.68,2.17,2.34,1.66,1.74,1.34,1.54,1.47,1.41 and 1.84,respectively.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Zhaozhou County is temporarily at a relatively high level.The water supply can support the regional social and economic development and is in a state of coordinated development.However,the carrying capacity tends to become fragile.Effective measures should be taken to improve the water use efficiency.