Assessment Study On Agricultural Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Central Yunnan Economic Area

The State attaches great importance to agricultural water conservation,and the Central Document No.1 has repeatedly made it clear that agricultural water conservation should be taken as a directional and strategic matter.Expanding irrigation area and increasing irrigation guarantee rate while the basic water consumption in agriculture is stable can effectively promote the sustainable use of water resources and improve agricultural production conditions,thus significantly improving the efficiency and effectiveness of agricultural water use and promoting the strategic adjustment of agricultural structure.As one of the important indicators to evaluate the degree of agricultural water resources development and utilization in an area,the result reflects to a certain extent the degree of water resources development and utilization,agricultural development level and social and economic development level of the region.Central Yunnan is the economic core area and agricultural priority development area of Yunnan Province,but it is also the most serious area of water shortage in Yunnan Province due to natural conditions,and water shortage has become the prominent bottleneck of its economic development.In order to alleviate the water shortage in central Yunnan,the state launched the Dianzhong Water Diversion Project and approved the feasibility study report of the Dianzhong Water Diversion Project.In order to realize the "simultaneous implementation,completion and benefit" of the second phase project and the main project,this paper conducts a comprehensive evaluation study on the agricultural water resources carrying capacity of the Central Yunnan Plateau Economic Zone.On the basis of clarifying the capacity of agricultural water resources to support the development of agricultural production in Central Yunnan,we will promote the feasibility study of the second phase of the project to better grasp the value of water resources from the overall agricultural situation and provide a basis for the formulation and implementation of water conservation policies,programs and measures as well as continuous improvement and refinement in the water-receiving areas of Central Yunnan.In this study,taking 2019 as the current year,the status of agricultural water resources in the central Yunnan Plateau economic zone and the development prediction of agricultural water resources based on the second phase water diversion project in Central Yunnan were analyzed in detail.On the basis of the current development,the evaluation index system of agricultural water resources carrying capacity in the central Yunnan Plateau economic zone was determined The planning year 2030,2040 agricultural water resources carrying capacity assessment laid the foundation.For the research of agricultural water resources carrying capacity,it is difficult to carry out fuzzy concept evaluation from limited data.At present,such methods as analytic hierarchy process,entropy weight method,background analysis method,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,finite element method,multi factor comprehensive evaluation method,conventional trend method,neural network method,grey clustering analysis method and multi-objective programming method have been used in the comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.But these methods often ignore the subjectivity and uncertainty in the evaluation process,the fuzziness and randomness of the problem itself,and the qualitative and quantitative transformation model to a certain extent.For example,the traditional method of calculating the index factor weight is analytic hierarchy process(AHP),which can not accurately judge the fuzziness and randomness of the index;Fuzzy mathematics,one of the traditional methods to deal with fuzzy problems,has changed the nature of fuzzy problems when using membership function to transform uncertainty.In this study,combined with the characteristics that cloud model can achieve qualitative and quantitative mutual transformation,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were improved,and a comprehensive evaluation model of agricultural water resources carrying capacity in Central Yunnan Plateau economic zone was established The carrying capacity of agricultural water resources in 2040 was comprehensively evaluated.The results show that the carrying capacity of agricultural water resources in the planning level year is better than that in the current year,and the state of carrying capacity changes from saturation to a certain state.From the perspective of each water receiving area,Dali,Chuxiong and Kunming are in a critical state in 2019,2030 and2040.In 2030 and 2040,the carrying capacity of Yuxi and Honghe areas will return to a certain state from the critical state.In 2040,the bearing capacity of Lijiang area will return to a certain state from the critical state.