Evaluation And Forecast Of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Land Resources In Yueyang City

In recent years,with the continuous improvement of urbanization and industrialization in Yueyang City,the demand for construction land has gradually increased,the contradiction between land supply and demand has become increasingly prominent,and the pressure on resources and environment has also increased.The study on the spatial and temporal differentiation of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Yueyang city can provide a reference for the overall land use planning and government decision-making in Yueyang city in the future.On the basis of following the principles of scientificalness and regional particularity,a three-level index system for evaluating the comprehensive carrying capacity of land is established,including 4 sub-bearing capacity systems and 20 specific indexes.The range conversion method is used to standardize the index data,entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each index,and the comprehensive land bearing capacity and its sub-bearing capacity in Yueyang city from 2008 to 2017 are calculated and evaluated.At the same time,the state evaluation method is also used to analyze the bearing status of some indexes.Taking 2017 as an example,the comprehensive land carrying capacity and sub-carrying capacity in different regions of Yueyang city are calculated and analyzed.Finally,the grey prediction model is used to predict the relative comprehensive land carrying capacity of Yueyang city in 2020 and 2025.The main results are as follows:(1)From 2008 to 2017,the comprehensive carrying capacity index of land resources in Yueyang City showed a significant upward trend,with the maximum being 0.7444 in 2017 and the minimum being 0.3710 in 2011.From the aspect of each sub-bearing capacity,the index of land resources bearing capacity has a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,but the overall change range is relatively small.The index of ecological environment carrying capacity has a trend of decreasing first and then increasing,with obvious change range.The economic and technological carrying capacity shows a significant upward trend,with the most obvious change among the four sub-carrying capacities,with the maximum carrying capacity index of 0.3259 in 2017.The index of carrying capacity for social development shows a slow upward trend,with a certain degree of fluctuation between years,with a maximum of 0.1783 in 2015.(2)Taking 2017 as an example,among the 6 indexes of the state evaluation method,5 indexes of per capita cultivated land area,population density,per capita GDP,sewage treatment rate and per capita park green space area were rated as general state,and per capita construction land area was rated as good state.However,historically,the per capita arable land area status index and population density status index showed a downward trend,while the per capita construction land area status index and per capita GDP status index showed an upward trend,with the other two indicators showing large fluctuations.In addition,from 2008 to 2011,the sewage treatment rate was in a state of crisis.From 2008 to 2014,GDP per capita was in an early warning state.In 2008,2009 and 2011,the per capita public green space area was in an early warning state.(3)Taking 2017 as an example,the index of comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in different regions of Yueyang city is arranged from large to small,in order:Yueyanglou District(0.6412)>Yunxi District(0.5554)>Junshan District(0.5182)>Miluo City(0.5124)>Xiangyin County(0.5008)>Huarong County(0.4877)>Yueyang County(0.4778)>Linxiang City(0.4763)>Pingjiang County(0.3404).Among them,Yueyanglou District is a high bearing area and Pingjiang County is a low bearing area.(4)GM(1,1)model is used to predict the relative land comprehensive carrying capacity index of Yueyang city in 2020 and 2025 to be 0.6535 and 0.8278 respectively.On the whole,the comprehensive carrying capacity index shows an upward trend,which is greatly influenced by the continuous growth of the economic and technological carrying capacity index and the social development carrying capacity index,while the land resources carrying capacity index changes very little,and the ecological environment carrying capacity index decreases first and then increases with the year.Conclusion:Overall,the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Yueyang City is developing in a healthy way,but there are still some problems to be solved,such as uneven regional carrying capacity,serious arable land problems,widening gap between urban and rural areas,and serious industrial pollution.