| As the capital city of Guizhou Province,Guiyang has the reputation of "City of Forests".In recent years,with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization,the cultivated land resources in the study area have been decreasing,and the ecological environment protection is facing challenges,which has affected the carrying capacity of land resources to a certain extent.In order to further improve the utilization rate of land resources and its carrying capacity,and promote the sustainability of land resource utilization,this research studies the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Guiyang from both theoretical and empirical aspects.The theoretical aspect uses resource scarcity theory,The sustainable development theory analyzes the land resource utilization structure and comprehensive dynamic changes in Guiyang,and introduces system dynamics in the empirical aspect.With the help of the Vensim software platform,the causality loop diagram and the flow stock diagram of the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guiyang's land resources are drawn,and determined by measuring the sensitivity The simulation combination plan provides the optimal development model for the study area in the next ten years.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)The result of Guiyang's diversification index is 0.71,indicating that Guiyang's land use types are relatively small,the degree of diversification is at the middle to upper level,the distribution of various types of land use is uneven,and the land area of various types is quite different.Reflecting the problems of the study area,the diversified land resource structure needs to be optimized,the relationship between man and land and the coordinated development of man and land need to be further improved.The classification of land resources is not obvious in planning,so the matching degree of spatial structure still needs to be improved.(2)During the study period,the proportion of cultivated land in Guiyang City was significantly reduced,while the proportion of transportation land and construction land continued to increase;from the perspective of the single dynamic degree of land use in Guiyang City,the specific order from high to low is: transportation land-Construction land-garden land-farmland-grassland-other land-forest land-water area and water conservancy facility land.The comprehensive land use dynamics is gradually decreasing and stable,reflecting the economic and social development of Guiyang City and the friendly transformation of the ecological environment.(3)The comprehensive index system method is used to evaluate the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Guiyang City.It is shown that the carrying capacity of each subsystem is in an upward development trend,and the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Guiyang develops in a balanced manner.At the same time,the index classification shows that the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guiyang's land resources is gradually increasing,but there is still room for improvement.(4)Under the circumstance that the overall simulation effect of the system dynamics model is consistent with the actual situation,the simulation simulation and scenario mode analysis of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Guiyang City show that in 2019-2032,the resource saving mode and the coordinated sustainable development mode can be used.Maximize the carrying capacity of land resources in Guiyang City and reach a relatively high carrying level.After 2032,stable and coordinated development can help the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources reach a higher level.(5)Based on the research results,the countermeasures and suggestions for improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in the study area are proposed from four perspectives: land resource utilization,cultivated land protection,urbanization process,and ecological civilization construction. |
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