Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Shihezi City Under The Condition Of "Three Red Lines" Of The Eighth Division

Object:Water resources carrying capacity is one of the essential reference targets and scales to measure the harmony between humans and water.Shihezi,the eighth Division,is located in the western arid zone,where water resources are scarce.With the introduction of the"three red lines"for water consumption.The contradiction between the supply and demand of regional water resources is increasingly prominent,which restricts regional sustainable development.In view of the prominent contradiction between supply and demand of regional water resources,unreasonable water use structure,low agricultural water benefit and water pollution,et al.problems.To carry out groundwater resource supply and demand forecast under total water consumption control,research on evaluation and quantitative calculation of WRCC.The study is of great significance to promoting the rational allocation and sustainable utilization of water resources and regional sustainable development in Shihezi District of the 8th Division.Methods:Firstly,based on the water cycle theory and the water resource,economic society,and complex ecological system,a dynamic prediction model of the water resource supply and demand system was constructed.The region’s future water supply and demand balance under different schemes is analyzed.GRA-TOPSIS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods were used to evaluate the regional WRCC.The evolution trend of water resources carrying capacity in Shihezi was analyzed.The obstacle degree model diagnosed the main influencing factors of WRCC.Finally,based on the system interaction stress theory of"social economy,water resources,and ecological environment,"a multi-objective decision-making model is constructed.Quantified the future bearing scale of water resources in Shihezi under the constraint of"three red lines."Results:(1)Under four different development modes,there will be a water demand gap of different degrees in the future regional water resources.If the conventional development pattern is followed,the total water consumption of Shihezi will be 15.43×10~8m~3in 2025 and 13.20×10~8m~3in 2030.It exceeds the total water use control index of 26.48%and 18.39%,the largest water demand gap.Water supply and demand are extremely tight.The comprehensive development scheme has the smallest water demand gap.1.09×10~8m~3in 2025 and0.76×10~8m~3in 2030.Agricultural use is the main factor driving water use above the red line.(2)From 2011 to 2020,the WRCC of Shihezi wasⅢ,and the water resources carrying pressure was balanced with the local pressure.The results of the two methods showed that the comprehensive index of WRCC increased first,then decreased,then increased,and then slowly decreased from 2011 to 2020.The carrying capacity index was the highest in 2016.The results of the GRA-TOPSIS index in 2011,2016,and 2020 were 0.4653,0.5318,and 0.5142.The index results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were 0.4031,0.4713,and 0.4623.(3)The obstacle degree model was used to diagnose and identify the main factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources in Shihezi.According to the analysis,per capita water resources,water production modulus,water supply modulus,agricultural water proportion,population density,water consumption per 10000 CNY of GDP,comprehensive utilization coefficient of irrigation water,forest coverage rate,ecological water proportion and sewage treatment rate are the ten most important factors affecting regional WRCC.Regional water resources and socio-economic factors influence carrying capacity more than ecological and environmental factors.(4)The scale of future water resources support constrained by"three red lines"in Shihezi was quantified,and the scheme to assist the formulation of future urban development planning was proposed.If the regional economy is considered first,the full economic scale that Shihezi can carry in 2025 and 2030under the constraint of total water resources is 84.043 billion yuan and 113.747 billion yuan,respectively.The maximum number of people that can be carried is 1.202 million and 1.199 million.In order to take into account population,economy,and environment,decision-makers can consult the non-inferior solution set table of the model according to regional development needs.To formulate plans for future regional water resource allocation and socio-economic development.Conclusion:The results of this study provide scientific reference for the optimal allocation of water resources and the formulation of sustainable economic and social development plans in the future.