Comprehensive Evaluation And Prediction Of Resources And Environment Carrying Capacity In Nanchuan District,Chongqing

Resources are the guarantee of human social life,and environment is the foundation of economic and social development.This year is the beginning year of the14 th Five-Year Plan.Nanchuan District of Chongqing,as "Chongqing one-hour economic circle",has become an important area for economic development and resource gathering.Therefore,through the research on the resource and environment carrying capacity of Nanchuan District,Chongqing Municipality,the balance between resource and environment protection and human society development is sought,so as to achieve sustainable development.In this paper,the DPSIR model evaluation index system was established,and SPSS,Matlab and other software were used to calculate the comprehensive index of resource and environmental carrying capacity of Nanchuan District,Chongqing from 2010 to2019.Grey correlation analysis was conducted on the selected indexes to determine the ranking of indexes' influence.The change of resource and environment carrying capacity in this area in 2020-2024 is predicted,and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:To construct an evaluation index system of resource and environmental carrying capacity in line with the actual situation of Nanchuan District,Chongqing,and to select31 specific evaluation indexes.By calculating the comprehensive index of resource and environment carrying capacity in Nanchuan District of Chongqing,it can be seen that the comprehensive index of resource and environment carrying capacity in Nanchuan District of Chongqing increased from 0.3669 in 2010 to 0.6596 in 2019,showing an overall upward trend from 2010 to 2019.The index of each subsystem in Nanchuan district changed to a certain extent from2010 to 2019.The key factor driving the rise of the comprehensive index is per capita GDP growth.The decrease of pressure subsystem comprehensive index is due to the increase of power consumption and other resources consumption.The main reason for the increase of the comprehensive index of state subsystem is the increase of the diversity index of land use type.The increase of the influence subsystem comprehensive index is attributed to the expansion of the proportion of regional development.The increase of the comprehensive index of response subsystem is mainly due to the increase of the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste and other resources.Forecast the comprehensive index of resource and environment carrying capacity of Nanchuan District in Chongqing in the next five years(2020-2024).It is predicted that the comprehensive index of resource and environment carrying capacity will increase year by year from 0.7398 in 2020 to 1.0000 in 2024,indicating that the resource and environment carrying capacity of Nanchuan District of Chongqing will gradually become better.In the future,Nanchuan District should improve the carrying capacity of resources and environment from the aspects of improving economic development,reducing resource consumption,optimizing land use,rational regional development,strictly controlling pollution sources and improving the utilization rate of resources.