Evaluation And Prediction Of Marine Comprehensive Bearing Capacity In Zhejiang Province

In his report to the 19th national congress of the communist party of China,General Secretary Xi Jinping made a major strategic plan to build China into a maritime power.Zhejiang is not only a province with large Marine resources but also a strong Marine economy.The provincial party committee put forward the goal of "accelerating the construction of a strong Marine province and promoting the Marine industry ".We will accelerate the development of the Marine economy to support the further development of the national economy.However,development is also accompanied by many problems such as Marine environmental pollution,which has a relatively large impact on the healthy development of the Marine economy.It is necessary to study the Marine comprehensive carrying capacity in order to realize the sustainable development of Marine economy.On the basis of previous studies in detail the concept of comprehensive Marine bearing capacity is discussed in this paper,with the system dynamics,the state evaluation model is established as the core of comprehensive Marine bearing capacity of composite system research method,for the subsequent analysis,simulation,provides important technical support,at the same time support the ocean development and management and regional harmonious development.Specific research results mainly include the following aspects(1)Construct an index system of three subsystems,namely,human social and economic development,Marine resource supply capacity and Marine ecological environment,and to evaluate the comprehensive Marine carrying capacity of Zhejiang Province in recent years,two different weighting methods were selected by using the state-space evaluation model for the region of Zhejiang Province.The results show that from 2010 to 2017,the overall Marine comprehensive carrying capacity of Zhejiang province is in the state of overload,and in 2013,the carrying capacity value tends to the state of full load,close to the critical value(2)The prediction and simulation are carried out based on the system dynamics model.As a result,Zhejiang province has a growing urban population and a shrinking rural population,significantly increasing its urbanization rate.The regional economic aggregate continued to increase,the total output value of the Marine industry increased rapidly,new industries began to develop,and the structure of the Marine industry continued to improve.The number of fish caught in the ocean is decreasing and mariculture production is increasing steadily.The discharge of wastewater is still increasing,the discharge of ammonia nitrogen is decreasing year by year,and the Marine water quality is improving year by year(3)Combining with relevant plans of Zhejiang Province,two prediction scenarios of the current development mode and the optimized development mode are designed,and the prediction and analysis of the comprehensive Marine bearing state of Zhejiang Province are carried out.The results show that,according to the current development mode,the carrying capacity of the next few years as a whole is in the state of full load;Under the optimal development mode of controlling the population growth rate,reducing the discharge of pollutants into the sea,controlling the fishing intensity,increasing human investment in the management of Marine ecological environment,and restoring and improving the service function of Marine ecosystem,the carrying capacity will reach the loadable state by 2023,and the improvement effect will be more significant.