Evaluation And Prediction Of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of The Tianshan North-Slope Urban Agglomeration

?The National New Urbanization Plan(2014-2020)?clearly proposed to optimize the development pattern of urbanization in China and make urban agglomerations in the central and western regions become a new and important growth pole to promote coordinated regional development,to promote regional cooperation between China and Central Asia and even the whole Eurasian continent.Urumqi,Changji and Shihezi are the core cities of the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration,which is the only land-bridge type urban agglomeration facing five Central Asian countries and the important carrier of social and economic development in North Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan and the core area of carrying the strategic practice of the Silk Road Economic Belt in China.All these not only bring a rare historical opportunity for its development,but also pose a severe challenge to its fragile ecological environment.How to avoid repeating the mistake of "pollution first,treatment later" in the developed areas of eastern and central China is one of the important practical problems faced by the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration.The comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations is an important basis for measuring the sustainable development ability of urban agglomerations.This paper evaluates and predicts the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration from two aspects: the whole urban agglomeration and the cities within the agglomeration.It has important practical significance for the sustainable development of urban agglomerations on the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration and the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Based on the theoretical analysis of urban comprehensive carrying capacity and the characteristics of urban agglomeration on the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of comprehensive carrying capacity and he comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration on the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration and the cities within the urban agglomeration is evaluated by the method of full-arrangement polygon comprehensive graphic representation.The comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and its subsystems in the next five years is evaluated by the grey GM(1,1)model.Then starting with the internal components of the comprehensive carrying capacity,the paper showed the advantages and shortcomings of each city and the whole urban agglomeration in the process of enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity according to the grey relational degree model.Finally,it put forward some policy suggestions to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Tianshan North-slope Urban AgglomerationThe main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From 2011 to 2016,the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration has been improved.The bearing capacity index is generally larger than the pressure index,and the bearing condition is basically loadable.There are obvious differences in the carrying capacity ofeach subsystem.The carrying capacity of resources,economy and public services is basically higher than that of infrastructure,environment and population.(2)From 2011 to 2016,the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration has been increasing,but there are obvious differences among cities.The comprehensive carrying capacity of Karamay and Urumqi is stronger,while that of Bole,Hami and Urumqi is weaker,and the scores of comprehensive carrying capacity are obviously different.The unbalanced distribution of resources,economy and population carrying capacity among cities is the most obvious,and the difference of comprehensive carrying capacity among cities has gradually increased in recent years.(3)In the next five years,the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomerationwill be loadable.The carrying capacity of economic,infrastructure and public service subsystems will continue to be optimized,while the carrying capacity of resources,environment and population subsystems will need to be further improved.(4)In the process of improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains,the advantages and shortcomings are different,but as far as the urban agglomerations on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains are concerned,economic strength,water resources supply capacity and energy supply capacity are the main factors affecting the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Tianshan North-slope Urban Agglomeration;the level of infrastructure construction,employment quality,industrial structure and science and technology.Technical education level,social welfare level and public service level are the auxiliary factors affecting the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains,while land production capacity,population size and environmental regulation intensity are the coordinated factors affecting the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.