Study On The Evaluation Of Comprehensive Relative Resource Carrying Capacity In Shanxi Province

Resource carrying capacity refers to the ability of a country or region to support the basic survival and development of the population in the region,and to evaluate whether the ratio of the existing resources and population in a region is reasonable,so as to achieve the goal of sustainable development.Based on the fact that Shanxi Province is the first provincial level comprehensive supporting reform experimental area for the transformation of resource-based economy in China,it is of great significance for the transformation and sustainable development of the resource-based economy of Shanxi Province to study the level and status of the relative resource carrying capacity of Shanxi Province,find out the existing problems and put forward relevant Suggestions.In this paper,further study of relative resources carrying capacity theory,combining the actual situation of Shanxi Province,established the "natural-economic-social-ecological environment" index evaluation system,the main use of cultivated land area,GDP,social security expenditure,forest area,such as 26 specific indicators,using the combination of subjective and objective method(AHP)and entropy weight method for weighting,by using improved traction effect(based on the advantage resources and disadvantages resource binding effect principle)of relative resources carrying capacity model,on the bearing capacity of relative resources in Shanxi Province are calculated and evaluated.On the one hand,taking the whole country as the reference area,this paper studied the relative resource carrying capacity of Shanxi Province from 2000 to 2017.Then,based on the results obtained from 2000 to 2017,it used the GM(1,1)model of gray system theory to predict the relative resource carrying capacity of Shanxi Province from 2018 to 2025.On the other hand,taking Shanxi Province as the reference area,the relative resource carrying capacity of 11 cities in Shanxi Province in 2016 was studied,and the results are as follows:(1)Taking the whole country as the reference area,the relative natural resource carrying capacity and the relative economic resource carrying capacity of Shanxi Province were in surplus and overload respectively from 2000 to 2017;The relative bearing capacity of social resources fluctuates up and down at the critical point of surplus and overload: in 2000-2003,2006,2014-2017,it was in the state of overload;in2004-2005,2007-2013,it was in the state of surplus.The change range of the carryingcapacity of ecological environmental resources is relatively large,but it is basically in surplus state.The relative comprehensive resource carrying capacity was overloaded in2001,2011 and 2015-2017,and the remaining 13 years were in surplus.(2)Taking the whole country as the reference area,it is predicted that the relative natural resource carrying capacity from 2018 to 2025 is in surplus,but shows a slight downward trend;The relative economic resources bearing capacity is in the overload condition,but presents the rising trend;The relative social resources bearing capacity is in the basic equilibrium partial overload condition,and presents the rising trend;The carrying capacity of relative ecological environment resources is in surplus,but shows a declining trend.According to the predicted relative natural,economic,social and ecological environmental resource carrying capacity,the calculated relative comprehensive resource carrying capacity will be overloaded in 2018-2021 and seriously overloaded in 2012-2015,showing a downward trend.(3)Taking Shanxi Province as the reference area,the order of relative comprehensive resource carrying capacity of 11 cities in Shanxi Province in 2016 is:taiyuan > yuncheng > luliang > linfen > xinzhou > jinzhong > datong > changzhi >jincheng >,shuozhou > yangquan.Among the natural resources carrying capacity,jincheng,shuozhou,yuncheng,xinzhou and luliang are in surplus.Among the carrying capacity of economic resources,taiyuan,jinzhong,shuozhou and jincheng are in surplus.Among the carrying capacity of social resources,taiyuan and jinzhong are in surplus.Among the carrying capacity of ecological environmental resources,taiyuan,datong,yangquan,jincheng,shuozhou,xinzhou and luliang are in surplus.Among the comprehensive resource carrying capacity,taiyuan,jincheng,shuozhou and xinzhou are in surplus and luliang is in equilibrium.Finally,based on the research on the relative comprehensive resource carrying capacity of Shanxi Province,this paper finds out the existing problems and puts forward some countermeasures and Suggestions.