Evaluation Research Of Ecological Carrying Capacity In Zhejiang Coastal Area

Ecological carrying capacity is an important index in evaluating sustainable development for an ecosystem.In recent years,most of the coastal area in China is suffered from resources dwindling,environmental deterioration,ecological risk rising and ecosystem degradation mainly due to the increasing human activities.Through the scientifically evaluation of ecological carrying capacity of a given coastal zone to guide the human activities could be a practical to achieve sustainable development.Zhejiang province is a coastal province with abundant marine and coastal resources.With the development of marine economic,the effects of economic development include pollution in marine ecological environment,frequent occurrence of red tide and destruction of marine ecological structure also place a heavy burden on coastal ecological environment and sustainable development.Studying of the ecological carrying capacity of coastal zones is an interdisciplinary research,which requires both the social science and nautral science background.This thesis firstly reviewed and synthesize the theoretical foundation of ecological carrying capacity assessment of coastal zones,it then established an assessment methodology and applied it to the Zhejiang Province.The main achieved results of the thesis are listed as following:(1)On the basis of reviewing the domestic and foregin studies on carrying capacity evaluation,with the theoretical guidance of complex systematology,ecosystem managenment and sustainable development,the thesis proposed a general conceptual model for systematic evaluation of the carrying capacity of coastal ecosystems,discussed the scientific connotation of coastal ecological carrying capacity and the relationships between carriers and carrying objects,and constructed an evaluation index framework including human activities,socio-economic development and ecological resilience.(2)Seleting of 18 specific indicators in light of the index framework to evaluate the coastal ecological carrying capacity of Zhejiang Province through an investigation of its natural,social and economic conditions.The ecological carrying capacity changes of Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2015 was evaluated by using both the subjective and objective weighting methods.The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity decreased from 2006 to 2010 in the loading state,and closed to the fullloading state in 2010,then it had been in overloading state since 2011.(3)Based on the regression model,the ecological carrying capacity of Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020 was predicted.The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity from 2016 to 2020 is in a state of slow recovery,showing a good recovery trend,but still in the state of overloading.According to the changing trends of the ecological carrying capacity of the study area,the thesis put forward some feasible suggestions to improve the ecological carrying capacity in Zhejiang coastal area.