Research On Early Warning Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics

Water is an important strategic resource that supports the healthy development of the social economy and ecological environment.In the era of rapid social and economic development,mankind is facing a crisis of water shortage,which also hinders the sustainable development of social economy.Therefore,the ability of water resources to support the sustainable and coordinated development of social economy and ecological environment has become the focus of attention.At the same time,early warning research on water resources carrying capacity has gradually become a research hotspot.Based on the method theory of system dynamics,this paper builds an early warning model of water resources carrying capacity in Huzhou City based on the economic,population,water resources and ecological environment data of Huzhou City from 2008 to 2018 through the simulation of Vensim PLE software The analysis method builds an early-warning evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Huzhou City to predict the early-warning index value of water resources carrying capacity in 2019-2025.Use the comprehensive index method to calculate the early warning comprehensive index value of water resources carrying capacity,and carry out early warning research and analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of Huzhou in 2019-2025 according to the magnitude of the value.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Outlines the theory and connotation of water resources carrying capacity and early warning of water resources carrying capacity,summarizes the methods of early warning of water resources carrying capacity and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of its application research,expounds the influencing factors,components,Work flow forms the theoretical framework of the early warning system of water resources carrying capacity.(2)Based on the influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity and the specific summary of Huzhou City,23 early-warning indicators are selected to constitute an early-warning evaluation indicator system,the weights are determined by the analytic hierarchy process,and the comprehensive index method is used to quantify the early-warning comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity.The size of the index is divided into four alarm ranges:heavy,medium,light and no alarm.At the same time,an early warning model of water resources carrying capacity in Huzhou City was constructed based on system dynamics.The model is composed of four subsystems:society,economy,water resources,and ecological environment,with a total of 69 system variables.The model passed the inspection of the system's own dimensions and system structure,and verified the accuracy of the model based on the historical data of Huzhou from 2008 to 2018.The results show that the error is within the acceptable range,and the model has good accuracy.(3)According to the current social and economic development status of Huzhou City and the needs of future development,four schemes are designed to simulate the change trend of water resources carrying capacity from 2019 to 2025.Early warning of resource carrying capacity.The results show that during this period of time,the alert level of the water resource carrying capacity under the current development model is light,and the water resource bearing is in an overload state.It is in a severe overload situation;the alert level of the water resource carrying capacity under the green water-saving and comprehensive coordinated development mode is no alarm,and the water resource carrying capacity is in a suitable loading state.