Research On Evaluation And Obstacle Factors Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Nine Provinces And Regions Along The Yellow River

Water resource serves as an irreplaceable precious resource for the survival and development of human society.With the increasing demands for water resources in all walks of life,it is imperative to figure out how to solve the contradiction between economic and social development and water resource carrying capacity in an effort to achieve sustainable development of arid and semi-arid areas in China.Uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and complex water levels are the basic national conditions of water resources in China.In arid and semi-arid areas of China,what has seriously restricted the regional sustainable development includes such prominent problems as the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources,water pollution,water ecological deterioration.In September 2019,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed a major national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin during his visit to Henan and pointed out the direction for the protection and development of the Yellow River Basin in China in the new era.Due to diverse natural endowment,social and economic development,and spatial characteristics in different regions,low water resource carrying capacity results from different influencing factors and characteristics.Thus,it is of more and more theoretical value and practical significance to conduct a multi-dimensional comprehensive evaluation and accurate identification of regional water resource carrying capacity.Meantime,Multidimensional comprehensive evaluation of regional water resource carrying capacity serves as the premise of accurate identification of water resource dilemmas and also the basis of formulating differentiated regional water resources development and utilization policies.Therefore,systematically researching the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and barrier factors of regional water resource carrying capacity can provide an important reference basis for improving the development and utilization of water resources and promoting the water ecological security and sustainable development of the basin.By rearranging the connotation of water resource carrying capacity evaluation in provinces along the Yellow River,this chapter comprehensively considers the actual situations at macro,medium,and micro levels in nine provinces along the Yellow River;from the perspective of the complex multiple factors affecting the improvement of water resource carrying capacity of the basin,this chapter also establishes an evaluation index system of water resource carrying capacity in nine provinces along the Yellow River based on the theoretical framework model of system coupling of “water resources—society—economy—environment.The second chapter carries out the comprehensive evaluation of the water resource carrying capacity in the nine provinces along the Yellow River from 2004 to 2018 with the combined weighting methods of entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process method.By introducing the coupling degree and coupling coordination model theory commonly used in physics,this chapter comprehensively and systematically evaluates the coupling and coordination of the "water resources social economy ecological environment" system and its two subsystems in nine provinces along the Yellow River from time series and spatial distribution;Furthermore,by using the barrier function,this chapter also quantitatively researches the main barrier factors affecting the improvement of water resource carrying capacity along the Yellow River basin,and the status and systematically and comprehensively reveals causes of water resource carrying capacity along the Yellow River basin.The main research contents and results are as follows.(1)The water resources carrying capacity of the nine provinces along the Yellow River is advancing in a coordinated and healthy direction,but the overall water body is still in the poor development level.During the 15 years from 2004 to 2018,the water resource carrying capacity of the nine provinces along the Yellow River was increasing year by year with an orderly and good overall development.From 2004 to 2018,the carrying capacity of the four subsystems in the nine provinces increased year by year,but it is apparent that the growth rate of the carrying capacity of the social and economic subsystem was four times that of the water resources and ecological environment subsystem.The social and economic subsystem gradually occupied the dominant position in the basin water resources carrying capacity system.The ecological environment gradually became the bottleneck and restricting factor for the improvement of water resources carrying capacity along the Yellow River Basin.The time series of water resources carrying capacity in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin showed a steady upward trend year by year,but the water resource carrying capacity in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin showed obvious regional fluctuations in space,and the differences between regions were obvious.The regions with the highest water resources carrying capacity were in Sichuan and Qinghai in the upper reaches,while the regions with the lowest water resources carrying capacity were mainly concentrated in Ningxia,Gansu,and Henan in the lower reaches.Overall,the difference in water resources carrying capacity among the nine provinces along the Yellow River was decreasing year by year.(2)The overall level of the water resources carrying capacity system of the nine provinces along the Yellow River was in the stage of high-level coupling and preliminary coordination with obvious spatial differences,and the coupling coordination between the two subsystems presented obvious differentiation characteristics.During the 15 years from 2004 to 2018,the coupling degree of water resources carrying capacity in the nine provinces along the Yellow River was decreasing steadily,but it was overall in a high coupling stage.The coupling degree of water resources carrying capacity in the upper and middle reaches of the basin was significantly higher than that in the lower reaches;From 2004 to 2018,the coupling coordination of the "water resources—society—economy—environment" system in nine provinces along the Yellow River showed an overall upward trend,and the coupling coordination changed from reluctantly coordination to preliminary coordination.The areas with the highest coupling coordination of water resources carrying capacity were in Sichuan and Qinghai in the upper reaches,while the areas with the lowest coupling coordination of water resources carrying capacity were mainly concentrated in Ningxia,Gansu in the upper reaches,and Henan and Shandong in the lower reaches;The coupling degree between the two subsystems was in the stage of high coupling,and the internal coupling index of the "two" subsystems in nine provinces was in the range of [0.8674,0.9903];from 2004 to 2018,the coupling and coordination between the "two" subsystems of the nine provinces developed in the direction of orderly coordination with obvious differences,and the internal coordination mechanism of the water resource carrying capacity system needed to be further improved.(3)By using the obstacle function model to analyze the influencing factors,the water resource criterion layer is the main criterion layer affecting the water resources carrying capacity of the nine provinces along the Yellow River.The main obstacles in the four upstream provinces are urbanization rate,GDP per capita,forest coverage rate,afforestation area of the year,soil erosion control degree,effective irrigation rate,and the number of students in colleges and universities.The main obstacles in the three provinces in the middle reaches are the amount of per capita water resources,the degree of water resources development,and the modulus of water production.The main obstacles in the two downstream provinces are the proportion of nature reserves,forest coverage,per capita water resources,fertilizer application intensity,afforestation area in the current year,and water production modulus.(4)In terms of water resources,the top-level design should be strengthened to promote the collaborative management of water resources in the basin.The specific suggestions include:(1)Establish and improve the water resource governance system and mechanism of the nine provinces along the Yellow River,and form a collaborative governance system(government,market,social organizations,citizens,etc.)with cultural guidance,collaborative governance principle of water-based demands,and "five elements" of "ecology,economy,resources,people's livelihood,culture" and "multiple governances" as the main contents;(2)Establish and enhance the water management system combining total amount control with quota-based management.In terms of the social economy,it is imperative to make full use of science and technology to ensure the sustainable development of the social economy.Specific suggestions include:(1)Strengthen agricultural science and technology and transform agricultural production methods(2)Increase investment in education and promote balanced development of education(3)Control population,improve population quality,adjust population structure.In the aspect of the ecological environment,it is necessary to strengthen the management and control of the ecological environment and improve the quality of the ecological environment.The specific suggestions include:(1)Build a public participation mechanism,improve "The River Chief System",encourage the independent role of "The Folk River Chief System" in the Yellow River basin governance,and form a new public participation mechanism that encourages the masses to join,which is led by the government and organized by environmental and social institutions(2)Establish and improve the ecological compensation mechanism,formulate accurate compensation mechanisms such as interprovincial compensation,inter-basin compensation and central financial transfer payment compensation(3)Innovate the ecological environment control mechanism of the Yellow River Basin,take water pollution and soil erosion control as the core goal,monitor and evaluate the degree of water pollution and soil erosion in nine provinces along the Yellow River,and explore comprehensive control mechanisms such as total amount control,pollutant discharge right trading,and tax incentives,in an attempt to lay a theoretical and institutional foundation for achieving high-quality development goals.