| Xiong'an New District as a national-level new district with overall strategic importance and a centralized location for Beijing's non-capital function relief,has a pivotal strategic position in China.However,water shortage,poor ecology conditions for river and lake and serious groundwater overexploitation in Xiong'an New District have become the urgent problems that need to be solved for the high-quality development of Xiong'an New District.The monitoring and early warning research of water resources carrying capacity has high timeliness because it is on the basis of the theory of water resources management and protection,the research can explore and predict the water resources carrying status of Xiong'an New District in time,and provide a scientific and effective reference for the rational regulation of water resources in Xiong'an New District.This research relies on the national key research and development topic "Xiong'an New District Water Resources Carrying Risk Assessment and Monitoring and Early Warning"(No.2018YFC0406505),it views water resources in Xiong'an New District as the research object,uses time-sensitive monitoring data,and combines the early warning method for water resources carrying capacity to conduct the monitoring and early warning research of the water resources carrying capacity of the Xiong'an New District according to the “water quantity,water quality,watersed and water flow”(hereinafter as “Quantity-Quality-Watershed-Flow”).The main tasks and results are as follows:(1)To comprehensively study the concept of “Quantity-Quality-Watershed-Flow”and conduct the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in current period.In order to explore the current water resources carrying capacity of Xiong'an New District,the research has screened 32 indicators to holistically reflect the water resources carrying capacity of Xiong'an New District,and with the support of the statistical data,the research has also developed an evaluation indicators system.An evaluation model was created using a multi-index comprehensive analysis method and the combined weight method to assign weights to each evaluation index.The model has 4 different levels of water resources carrying status: normal(excellent),critical overload(good),overload(poor)and severe overload(extremely poor).The water resources carrying capacity of the Xiong'an New District from 2010 to 2019 was evaluated.The evaluation results show that the water resources carrying capacity of the Xiong'an New District during that period has been overloaded for a long time and the carrying condition is poor,poor endowment of water resources,high intensity of water resources development and utilization,irrational water use structure,and serious water pollution are the main causes of overload status.(2)Within the framework of the evaluation indicators system of water resources carrying capacity in Xiong'an New District and in support of monitoring data with better timeliness,the early warning the monitoring and early warning indicator system for water resources carrying capacity in Xiong'an New District was developed based on monitoring data.The combined weight method was used to assign weights to the monitoring and early warning indicators,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was introduced to establish a monitoring and early warning model.The model has determined the early warning standards according to the status of water resources and sustainable economic and social development,and has elucidated the correlation between the early warning evaluation results and the evaluation results.The monitoring data from 2010 to 2019 was used to verify the accuracy of monitoring and early warning model.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Xiong'an New District has been in severe warning level from 2010 to 2019.The early warning level of water resources carrying capacity is consistent with the water resources carrying status,which indicates that the monitoring and early warning results are reliable.(3)Based on the method of system dynamics,this paper analyzes the logical relationship among monitoring and early warning indicators,and between the monitoring and early warning indicators and other related variables.The research also studies and establishes the multivariable mathematical relationship equation among the indicators,and further creates the prediction and early warning model of water resources carrying capacity in Xiong'an New District.On this basis,according to the possible future development trend of Xiong'an New District,five different scenarios were set up,including current situation continuation,green water-saving,economic development,inter-regional water diversion and coordinated development,these scenarios have been respectively used to predict and early warn the future water resources carrying capacity.The results show that the early warning level of water resources carrying capacity of Xiong'an New District is the best under the coordinated development scenario,and it can be used as the recommended model for the future development of Xiong'an New District.The results show that,the water resources carrying capacity of Xiong'an New District under the coordinated development scenario has a greater potential of improvement,which will be recommended for the future development of Xiong'an New District. |
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