Research On Early Warning Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Ningxia

Water resources carrying capacity emphasizes the balance between water resources,ecology and economic development.This study focused on the ecological protection,combined with water resources carrying capacity,high quality development.From the characteristics of regional water,ecology and economy coordination relationship,the early warning index system of water resources carrying capacity in Ningxia was established,and we conducted water resources carrying capacity evaluation and early warning research in this area,to better refine the regional water resources management model,and provide support for ecological protection and high quality development in the region.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the understanding of the connotation of water resources carrying capacity,considering the characteristics of water resources exploitation and utilization in Ningxia,and from the principles of completeness and hierarchy,feasibility and operability,and regionality,etc.We selected 12 indicators from the four aspects of society,economy,water resources,and water environment to build the early warning indicator system for water resources carrying capacity in Ningxia,and gived weight to each indicator through the AHP method.(2)From the perspective of water resource supply and demand,the system dynamics early warning model of water resource carrying capacity in Ningxia was established,and it passed the dimensional and structural test of the model.Calibrating the model based on historical data,the error was less than 10%,which indicated that the model has high reliability and good simulation performance.(3)Early warning comprehensive index was adopted for early warning analysis of water resources carrying capacity,and early warning levels were divided according to relevant documents.Through the simulation and prediction of the carrying capacity of water resources under the conventional development situation,the results showed that the future water resources supply capacity can not support the scale of social and economic development.The early warning grade of water resources carrying capacity will be orange by 2030,and the warning situation will be the degree of serious.The water resources carrying status will be in the trend of gradual deterioration.(4)Based on the conventional development,three different development schemes were designed,and carried out evaluation and early warning research on water resources carrying capacity under different schemes,the results showed that compared with the conventional development scheme,industrial structure adjustment method and water saving and pollution control method can effectively alleviate the pressure of water supply and demand,but the comprehensive scheme had the most significant effect on the improvement of water resources carrying capacity,it can reduce the heavy alarm to light alarm and make the warning level from orange to blue in the forecast period.Under this scheme,the surplus of water resources will be 1.108 billion cubic metre by 2030.