| Sufficient water resources is a prerequisite for ensuring the social and economic development of a region.With the rapid economic development and the continuous increase in population,the limited amount of water resources is difficult to carry more and more consumption,and the carrying capacity of water resources is facing a severe test.The carrying capacity of water resources is not only an important condition for measuring whether a region can achieve sustainable development,but also a key to solving water resource problems.As an important part of guaranteeing water security in Beijing,the capital of China,Zhangjiakou City has delivered a large amount of water resources to Beijing for a long time.However,in the past 40 years or so,due to changes in climatic conditions and social and economic development,Zhangjiakou City has faced severe challenges such as shortage of water resources and deterioration of the water quality environment.How to develop the social and economy and protect ecological environment based on water resource carrying capacity is a scientific issue that must be answered for zhangjiakou's sustainable development.On the basis of summarizing relevant research results of water resources carrying capacity at home and abroad,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou based on the current situation of water resources development and utilization in Zhangjiakou.Combining AHP and entropy weight method to establish the index weight,the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate and analyze the current situation of water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou City and the spatial-temporal changes of water resources carrying capacity from 2005 to 2017.The multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate and analyze the current status of water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou City,and the spatial-temporal changes of water resources carrying capacity from 2005 to 2017.Subsequently,the forecast and early warning of the water resource carrying capacity of Zhangjiakou City in 2020,2022 and 2035.And put forward corresponding measures to improve the carrying capacity of water resources,with a view to providing a reference for the rational development,utilization and distribution of water resources in the region.The main conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)The current situation of water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou is poor,and the potential for continued development of water resources is small.After analysis,it is foundthat it is mainly affected by the water resources system,especially by the per capita water resources and water production modulus,which leads to a low level of the current status of the water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou City.(2)From 2005 to 2017,Zhangjiakou's water resource carrying capacity was on the whole rising,but the overall situation was poor,and it was at a weak or weak level for most of the time.The water resources subsystem plays a leading role in its change,and the impact of other subsystems is smaller.(3)At the district and county scale,the spatial difference in the distribution of water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou City is obvious.The water resources carrying capacity of eastern and southern districts and counties are relatively good.The water resources carrying capacity of the western and northern districts and counties are relatively poor,but there is a clear improvement trend.The carrying capacity of water resources is relatively the worst.(4)The results of early warning of water resources carrying capacity show that.Under the current situation,the water resource carrying capacity will gradually deteriorate in 2020,2022,and 2035,and the warning level will change from light to severe.In the context of open source and throttling,the warning level has been at no alarm,and the carrying capacity of water resources has gradually improved. |
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