Study On Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Yujiang River Basin Based On Supply And Demand Forecasting

Today's severe water resources situation seriously restricts the development of China's economy and affects the stability and harmony of the society.Improving the effective utilization of water resources while pursuing the “open source and thrifty” of water resources has become one of the ways to alleviate the severe situation of water resources..Research on the optimal allocation of water resources is one of the main researches to improve the comprehensive and effective utilization of water resources.It aims to allocate limited water resources to specific requirements to meet one or several specific target requirements.Taking the Yujiang River Basin as a research area,by analyzing the relationship between water resources system and society and economy in the study area,a water resources optimization allocation model based on coordinated development between sub-areas is constructed to improve the effective utilization of water resources in the Yujiang River Basin.The main research work is as follows:(1)Understand the status of water supply and water demand in the Yujiang River Basin,and divide the existing reservoirs in the basin as the nodes.Investigate and analyze the surface water resources of the Yujiang River Basin at different incoming water frequencies,and calculate the ecological base flow in the river channel.The amount of surface water that can not be used in floods such as floods is analyzed.The available water resources of different surface water sources in the current year are analyzed.The trend line method is used to predict the planned annual water supply capacity,groundwater and other water source availability,and the planning year is determined at different incoming water frequencies.The amount of water available under conditions.(2)The SD model was used and the water quota method was used to investigate and analyze the relevant variable values of the affected water demand in the base year of each sub-area.The dynamic model of the water demand forecasting system in the Yujiang River Basin was constructed to predict the regional water level of different water frequency in different water-saving modes.The amount of water required,and the rationality analysis of the model prediction results.The annual water supply and water demand of the study area are summarized,and the supply and demand balance analysis is carried out to understand the water shortage in each sub-area of the Yujiang River Basin,and the direction of optimal allocation of water resources in the Yujiang River Basin is initially conceived and clarified.(3)Determine the supply and demand structure under different water-saving modes with different water supply frequencies in the Yujiang River Basin with multiple water sources,multi-zones and multi-users,and construct a multi-objective water resources optimal allocation model.Considering the equilibrium and coordinated development between the sub-areas of the basin,the Gini coefficient and the Nash efficiency coefficient are introduced as constraints.The NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve the configuration model,and the Pareto optimal solution set is obtained to determine the optimal allocation scheme for the research area..By comparing the two typical schemes with the optimized configuration scheme,the results show that the model construction idea is correct and the configuration result is reasonable.