Analysis Of Water Supply And Demand Balance And Study On Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Karamay

As an irreplaceable natural resource,water resources play an important role in people's life,economic development and ecological protection.Karamay is an important petroleum and petrochemical industry base of the country,a realistic succession area for PetroChina to implement the strategy of"rapid development in the west"and a new industrialized city built by the autonomous region,which has unique development advantages and broad development space.With the increase of PetroChina's support for Karamay,the water consumption of oil and gas production and petroleum and petrochemical industry in Karamay will increase dramatically,and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Karamay will become more prominent.Karamay City is located in the edge of Gurbantunggut Desert in Junggar Basin,with sparse vegetation on the surface.Most of the area is bare Gobi Desert,with less forest area,low forest coverage,serious salinization of land,decreasing natural grassland area and very bad natural ecological environment.In order to further increase the proportion of industrial water use,ensure urban safety,improve the ecological environment,and make the limited water resources meet the development needs of all walks of life as much as possible,it is particularly important to analyze the balance between supply and demand of water resources in Karamay and to regulate the multidimensional critical.Based on the analysis of water use structure and water supply-demand balance in Karamay,this paper constructs a multidimensional critical regulation model for water resources utilization by applying the multidimensional critical regulation theory.It optimizes the water use structure of Karamay,alleviates the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources,and guarantees the sustainable utilization of water resources.By collecting data of water resources in Karamay,the development and utilization of surface water,groundwater and reclaimed water are analyzed in the region,and the proportion and structure of water use are determined in each region.The analysis shows that the proportion of agricultural water use is high,accounting for 48%,and the cost is high and the benefit is low.The contribution of agriculture to the economy is only 0.82%.The proportion of industrial water is low,but the output value of single water is high.The ecological environment is deteriorating gradually,and the proportion of ecological water needs to be further optimized.According to the water resources utilization plan of Karamay City,the water supply and demand balance of Karamay City in 2020 and 2030 is forecasted with 2016 as the base year,and the water supply and demand balance of Karamay City is analyzed.It is concluded that the water demand of water resources in 2020 and 2030 is larger than that of water supply,which can not meet the needs of social and economic development,people's lives and good development of ecological environment.Aiming at the above problems of water resources in Karamay City,the water resources control objectives,constraints and thresholds are determined by analyzing the data of water resources.A multidimensional critical water resources control model based on critical control theory,orderly principle,dissipative structure theory and Synergetics is constructed.The order degree and system entropy of each subsystem in the water resources system of Karamay city were calculated by increasing water diversion and sewage treatment in the outer watershed.Thus,the evolution direction of water resources system and the optimized water resources structure scheme are determined.The entropy of the water resources system in2020 and 2030 is reduced to 0.0076 and 0.0072,and the domestic and ecological water use are guaranteed.The water shortage of industry and agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery has been further improved.The water shortage in 2020 and 2030 has been reduced by 21065.72×10~4m~3 and 27002.42×10~4m~3,respectively,compared with the initial scheme.It is of great significance to ensure the orderly and coordinated development and sustainable utilization of water resources system in Karamay City.